MathManMember since November 20, 2007
Habs fan since: 1981
Favorite current player: Andrei Markov
All-time favorite player: Jean Béliveau
- Comment on Canadiens name Therrien coach (2012-06-05 01:00:39)
Thus ends Bergevin's honeymoon. Looks like we may be headed for that rebuild after all. EDIT: I'm told he has repeatedly said that if he was the Habs' coach he'd "straighten out" Subban. So for his first trick, will Therrien mess up the team's #1 D-man and arguably best skater?
- Comment on “Mike”: The Sequel? (2012-06-02 16:09:14)
Ahem, how does this go again? "Oh God no, please no!" Therrien is pretty much the worst of the candidates out there. He managed to make the Pittsburgh Penguins into one of the worst 5-on-5 clubs in the league, and when he was replaced by Blysma the club became instantly better. If they're going to seriously consider him, they'd be better off rolling the dice on an unknown quantity, like a junior coach.
- Comment on How bad were the Canadiens? (2012-04-17 15:57:07)
Goal differential is a better predictor of future team performance than won-loss record - it's called pythagorean expectation, and there's a link to an article by Alan Ryder on the subject in the EOTP article. The point isn't about what happens in the past, the point is what it tells you about the future. After all, that team that lost five games by a goal probably needs less work than a team that loses five games by an average of three...
- Comment on How bad were the Canadiens? (2012-04-17 15:54:06)
Faceoffs, as general team performance, are overrated. They are very weakly correlated with winning, and improvement tends to be marginal because the difference between a good faceoff team and a bad one is really rather small (the difference between 5th and 25th is 51.6% vs. 48.3%).
- Comment on About last night … (2012-01-26 12:09:07)
Check your stats and update: Montreal is no longer "one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league".
- Comment on Kaberle? Really??? (2011-12-09 16:43:05)
Oh, another tidbit of data you may not realize: in terms of GA per icetime, among players with significant PK time, Plekanec was the best penalty killing forward *in the entire league* last year.
- Comment on Kaberle? Really??? (2011-12-09 16:35:22)
I am always up for learning about stats. I'm probably one of the biggest proponents of statistical analysis of hockey there are in Habs fandom. Data-driven evaluation is an excellent approach and I cannot possibly endorse it more, so I commend you for making this exercise. It's a nice video; sorry I couldn't watch it with the sound on. I see two major problems with it though: there's no consideration for strength of opposition, and have not examined the importance of statistical variance in your analysis. In the first instance it's a pretty intuitive concept: Nokelainen preventing 4th-liners from scoring doesn't necessarily mean he will make a good job of preventing first-liners from scoring. The second issue is more subtle; hockey is highly chaotic and there is a lot that is outside of a player's control, and because goals are rare it is often the case that on a small sample the right process and the right play will produce the wrong result. I heartily recommend both enattendantlesnordiques.blogspot.com and habseyesontheprize.com if you have interest in quantitative analysis of hockey. You'll find a lot of like-minded people over there, though I imagine most will disagree with your assessment of the coach, based on their own analysis of the data. There are a number of other blogs that do similar research but cover other teams than the Habs; arcticicehockey.com is probably the foremost, being the home of Gabriel Desjardins. His behindthenet.ca site, if you're not aware of it, is a fantastic resource for many microstatistics such as scoring rates.
- Comment on Kaberle? Really??? (2011-12-09 15:43:36)
So, if I read you correctly, there is no conceivable way in which the 13th highest-scoring D-man of last year can possibly help this club?
- Comment on Pacioretty suspended three games (2011-11-29 01:24:11)
I suggest you do not hold your breath hoping for consistency; none has heretofore been displayed and there is no reason to believe this would change. The league remains motivated by keeping appearances rather than preserving player safety, and Shanahan's wheel of fortune is really no different from Campbell, and he has zero credibility remaining as a result.
- Comment on Liveblog: Canadiens’ winning streak ends (2011-11-05 20:03:36)
Interesting. It's your honest belief that the Habs could throw a hit, a fight, etc. in this game and not end up on the PK?