christophor - (Danny Dann)Member since December 14, 2009
Habs fan since: forever
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- Comment on Playoff-bound Habs get day off in Florida; Murray faces NHL hearing (2014-04-02 16:33:13)
It's the only reply he's ever made to my posts, which actually take time to put together. This isn't just a one time thing. Now it's passive aggressive: posted elsewhere and not in reply to my post. Seen in a vacuum, I guess it looks like I'm overreacting. I was actually far more congenial at first. I just don't see how this isn't trolling. We all occasionally troll, but just because you like the troll's more congenial tone in most posts doesn't mean you just say, "ok what the heck", when he's being a d*ck repeatedly to the same person. Edit: just for some perspective, Andrew Berkshire was my least favourite poster on here. I agree with a lot of what he says, though. It's not about content. It's one thing to say, "I disagree", and even occasionally engage in 'funning around'. It's another to, without fail, reply to one poster, or anyone of a particular persuasion, by saying their contributions are vacuous, especially when it's clear they've done their homework and are simply at odds with your take. I've been bad at disagreeing on these issues in the past, but I think I've worked on it and that my reply above is called for.
- Comment on Playoff-bound Habs get day off in Florida; Murray faces NHL hearing (2014-04-02 16:23:10)
Right, but that's very short-term production (i.e. small sample). Their shooting percentages are unsustainably high right now and they're scoring on more than twice the percentage of their chances that comparable lines score at. I don't think it's sustainable. DD will produce at a good clip with this set up, but it won't be enough for how much it takes away from the rest of the team.
- Comment on Playoff-bound Habs get day off in Florida; Murray faces NHL hearing (2014-04-02 16:20:27)
Right, sorry. But I still think my latest comment goes through, even if you bring him up to a point per game. We'll agree on this: for there to be a chance of DD working here on a contender, he does have to produce a lot more.
- Comment on Playoff-bound Habs get day off in Florida; Murray faces NHL hearing (2014-04-02 16:17:27)
No point engaging in conversation with you after this post. Seems your strategy when you disagree with someone (and don't have a good reply) is to say it's all smoke and mirrors (and you don't ever explain why it's all smoke and mirrors). It's actually hilarious that you dismiss terms that have definitions with precise meanings rooted in specific stats taken by NHL statisticians. You throw them in there with meaningless cliches like "active stick" etc. And yet, your only reply is that X player "clears the crease". You're being tribal, not reasonable. Continue with sarcastic posts and unreasonable dismissals of (instead of reasoned enggement with) others' thoughts. Cya
- Comment on Playoff-bound Habs get day off in Florida; Murray faces NHL hearing (2014-04-02 14:08:27)
I see. But I see other exploitation centermen getting more than a point per game without needing their team's two best wingers. The displacement throughout the lineup would still be a factor if Desharnais upped his production to, say, 70-80 pts. In fact, the increase in points is precisely due to demanding a second winger who drives the play AND can score a lot. That's a whole lot to ask for and depletes the rest of the lineup, especially in a cap world. Also, we reasonably believe Galchenyuk can surpass that someday, and with less easy minutes and less displacement throughout the lineup. I don't think he can get off the ground while Desharnais has easy minutes + Pacioretty + Vanek/Gallagher.
- Comment on Playoff-bound Habs get day off in Florida; Murray faces NHL hearing (2014-04-02 13:56:04)
No, I wouldn't suggest changing things now. Too late for this season.
- Comment on Playoff-bound Habs get day off in Florida; Murray faces NHL hearing (2014-04-02 13:50:35)
Well put. But I think it's smarter to bet on your star-in-the-making (Galchenyuk) taking the reins within the next few years rather than on your small center, who's in his late 20's, changing or upping his game significantly.
- Comment on Playoff-bound Habs get day off in Florida; Murray faces NHL hearing (2014-04-02 13:45:39)
I'm not sure what you think DD has over Bergevin's head that makes you think DD decides whether Pacioretty stays or goes (with him). Edit: on the contrary, Bergevin has 5 more years of a contract over Pacioretty's head. Even though Pacioretty might be upset, I think he'll be happy soon enough playing with a 22+ year old Galchenyuk. Also, your point about Galchenyuk ignores the entire reasoning of the post. I say he'll need Desharnais' role to get to the point you yourself say he'll get to. If you don't think so, let's hear why not.
- Comment on Playoff-bound Habs get day off in Florida; Murray faces NHL hearing (2014-04-02 12:51:25)
Getting rid of Eller at his lowest value would be dumb, just like getting rid of Desharnais at his lowest value would have been dumb. Who knows whose head everyone (including Boone, usually) will be calling for in December. Since he's turned his play around, most ppl have come around to thinking Desharnais should stay long term. I still don't think so. I think there are really good reasons why the Habs will have a really hard time winning a Stanley Cup with Desharnais (at least as he's deployed). I know ppl won't be as open to this as before, but I’m being consistent and haven't been given a good enough reason to change my mind. Desharnais' success for the last 50 games isn't a good enough reason, as you'll see. Desharnais is really poor defensively, which Therrien recognizes (as did Martin) and mitigates by starting his line in the offensive zone more often than the other lines, and against the opposition's lower lines if he can manage it (plus he keeps him off the PK). Desharnais is playing what are called 'easy minutes'; he's an 'exploitation' centerman. In fact, if you look at the data, during Desharnais' struggles earlier in the season, Therrien was for some strange reason playing him in tougher minutes: more d-zone starts and against tougher competition. He came out of his funk when that, plus his bad luck, stopped. Having to play one of your centermen in easy minutes isn't necessarily crippling. Some really good players get easy minutes when their coach can manage it. Under Vigneault, the Sedins got easy minutes, but they don't under Tortarella and they're struggling in part because that hasn't been their game. But the Sedins produced enough for that to make sense, and they got to game 7 of the final doing that. Desharnais does not and never will produce enough for this deployment to result in a Stanley Cup. Plus, he demands more of his team to set him up in a position to succeed. I’ll explain. If a Stanley Cup team deploys an exploitation centerman, two simple (but significant) conditions need to obtain: (1) The other lines must be capable of playing in tough minutes in order to insulate the exploitation line. (2) The exploitation centerman needs to produce enough to make this worthwhile (otherwise the whole team is propping him up unjustifiably). The Canadiens meet condition (1), especially with Plekanec, but not (2). There are a lot of players who play way tougher minutes and produce way more than Desharnais. Plekanec almost produces as much and the toughness of his minutes are in another league compared to Desharnais' (see point totals and minute quality for last three years). Here are the reasons the Habs' use of Desharnais cripples them: (1) Doesn't produce enough to justify the set up (2) Needs obscenely good wingers who are not also just exploitation players but capable of tougher minutes (Gallagher, Pacioretty). In other words, he forces tough-minutes players into lesser roles. If Desharnais could produce with Briere and a Kovalev-type player, his line could be even better propped up by a tough-minutes pairing of Plekanec and Pacioretty, who themselves would produce more. This would shift Desharnais to a lower line exploitation role. He’d have less minutes and lesser wingers, and he’d still be propped up (i.e. still be in easy minutes). He’d still need to produce, but only secondary scoring. But even in this role, I’d rather a 30-40 point Lars Eller who can take some pressure off Plekanec and Pacioretty and so allow them to produce more (even though the latter would still play tough minutes). But this isn’t an Eller vs. DD issue. The big problem is that Galchenyuk needs to play center soon, and he'll need to start in an exploitation role, shifting gradually to tougher minutes as he learns to handle them. Plekanec's line will take pressure off him, but it won't be enough with Desharnais on this team as well. A team can't have two exploitation lines; unless you're playing the Buffalos of the world, there aren't enough easy minutes. If Desharnais stays, Galchenyuk will be forced into tougher minutes right away and with lesser wingers. He'll be set up to fail. I don't think Bergevin will let that happen, since Galchenyuk is the centerpiece he brought in himself. Plus, I think Galchenyuk will produce more than Desharnais, sooner rather than later, in the same minutes. He already produced more than Desharnais last year with less ice time and in much tougher minutes (as did Eller, since Eller and Galchenyuk took secondary tough minutes after Plekanec), albeit Galchenyuk did this from the wing. I think Desharnais should (and I think he will) be traded in the off-season, especially since his value is decent. If not, the latest I see it happening is next summer.
- Comment on Liveblog: Game 72 – Canadiens win a nailbiter on Plekanec goal (2014-03-22 21:04:02)