krob1000Member since November 12, 2007
Habs fan since: Conception
Favorite current player: Galchellerubban
All-time favorite player: Lafleur/Naslund
- Comment on Habs’ Gorges has surgery on fractured hand, out four weeks (2014-03-10 14:48:43)
I thought Weaver did everything GOrges does and well last game.
- Comment on Habs’ Gorges has surgery on fractured hand, out four weeks (2014-03-10 14:47:05)
That much I can agree on and you clearly have the same approach I do to them. As long as people understand all of the different factors and their impact than I get it. It is the overreliance on these advanced though that is becoming the norm...in fact I have a hard time even calling them advanced. I am still interested when someone says something statistical and I myself use them too....but the idea carry any more weight than others I do not agree. You mention sample size being large enough and that is where I disagree....with the infinite amount of possibilities over the course of one hockey game I see the current database as a blink of an eye in time. Someone should take one player...just one....have several cameras follow that one player and monitor every decision and angle of that players options,etc over time and then compare similar situations with as many of the other variables being comparable and track resulting outcomes...then they may be on to something but I just see the size of the work being necessary to bring validity to these stats in hockey taking years and year in actual game minutes per player to have real relevance. I think the same player could play an entire career and have very few circumstance where you could actually see the same pass happen under almost similar circumstances.
- Comment on Habs’ Gorges has surgery on fractured hand, out four weeks (2014-03-10 14:04:27)
OK everyone...here is hockey as I see it in a nutshell...a nutshell the size of the everexpanding universe! Hockey is the bringing together of hundreds of thousands of decisions made by up to 13 players of varying intelligence(impacted by personality, momentum/confidence/learned behaviour,educated guesswork,etc), skill levels and the resulting action of a hockey puck with multiple obstacles both intelligent and inordinate where the objective is to put the puck into one of two nets occuring at speeds varying from 0 to 120 miles per hour in a space limited to 85 by 200 feet over the course of 60 mintues or more. Give that to a mathematician..and have him estimate the possible outcomes... Hockey sense is the ability to assess (mentally and to be executed you need to react phsyically simultaneously)all of these obstacles and reactions at a faster speed than others. The best players are ones with skillsets thta match their mental skillsets and this is simply because they will ofer themselves the most opportunites to succeed over time. In the end hockey like everything else can be descripted statistically...just not by the methods we see today. USA hockey has the Intelligym that is a useful tool from what I read but even it appears to be in the Atari stage vs the rocket simulation that is actually required to really be effective. The best thing I ever read about Walter Gretzky was that he used to make Wayne watch hockey and try to follow the puck and draw the pucks path on a rink he had drawn on paper. What a phenomenal way to develop awareness at the time...while it was not perfect science it gave Wayne the building blocks to visualize and understand the tendancies of the game. I still maintain this is thebes tI have seen aside from actual hckey experience..if you ware watching the best players inthe world and trying to anticiapte their decsions in ral time whil visualizing a hockey rink can you really do anything better than tat to understand their behaviour? Now if some genius wants to start analyzing every players tendencies in various situations then perhaps stats may become advanced after all. But I assume that already happens to some degree byt teh guys on the ice...let us take PK Subban vs Josh Gorges... For example if you are playing agaisnt these two....you need a line change...dump it into Gorges corner and not Subban's. Subban's immediate first thought is up ice and you may get caught in transition , Gorges is going to control the puck and make safe play. In the offesnvie zone Subban early in his career tried to shoot with his head dwon and hit way to many shin pads, oppostion forwards started always playing him in the shooting lane and could cheat out on him to cut the angle as he was going to shoot and had such a deliberate windup. Gorges on the other hand also is predictable...he rarely puts the puck towards the net....so soemtimes guys race to the corner a fraction of a second sooner than they would if it were PK there. Subban wil try to push the puck up ice but may turn around if he does not like it...but he will immediately then be looking forward to best advance the puck. His mentality is always try to advance the play. Gorges will usually pass to his partner(Subban) who will be ready for a hinge pass...Gorges will rarely receive this same pass back from Subban. Pk would rather try to beat the forechecker himself and try to make a positive play instead of a nautral or retreating one. There is no current metric that would have accurately described Brett Hull's ability to find dead space, be in perfect position and get way what to this day may be the most intimidating shot in the history of the game off. There is no possession metric that would accuratley assess Phil Esposito's abilities in front of the net,etc. What happened to Scott Gomez? he could still skate throught the neutral zone with the games elite, he could still pass with them too...but he became predictable....he lost his confidence IMO and that limited the variances in his game so he became a non factor...yet possesson wise he was great. There are factors such as intimidation,fear, confidence, anger, depression, fatigue, pain, distraction, anxiety,health, physcial perspective, sight lines, etc,etc,etc, that impact decision making...so how do you quantify this? How many different possbilities are there foreach individual decison? how many decision are made over the course of the game? how many with the puck? here is the best thing....98 percent of the game you will not have the puck....where do you different indivisduals go when they do not have the puck? how do they impact the puck carriers options?does who that person is affect the puck carriers decison making? absolutely it does. To sum it up....trying to quantify hockey in such simple terms as puck possession is like trying to find a 4 digit code to uncover the secrets of the universe....it really just is not that simple. Is it a stat that may have something to offer? maybe? but hen again so to is plus minus? then again both are archaic relative to what woudl be necessary although one is somehow given the handle of "Advanced Stats" In summary....we need someone a hell of a lot smarter than Corsi or Fenwick to give us something usable.
- Comment on Habs’ Gorges has surgery on fractured hand, out four weeks (2014-03-10 13:16:17)
Yup...if htey thought PRice was long term there were everal better goalies available. I think they are just being very cautious given teams position and MB belies team can make a run or would not have picked up Vanek.
- Comment on Habs’ Gorges has surgery on fractured hand, out four weeks (2014-03-10 13:11:25)
In two games he has played in MOntreal...he leads team with 5...he will be just fine.
- Comment on Habs’ Gorges has surgery on fractured hand, out four weeks (2014-03-10 13:01:50)
that is a ridiculously general statement....I could just as easily say...doubters of advanced statistical importance have confirmation that team that scores most goals wins games. The only way advanced stats every accurately provide anything to the game of hockey of real importance (anymore than existing stats) is if they monitor decision making. A great NHl player has the stick on and off his stick, in a hurry, the puck possession stats reward two dmen retreating with multiple hinge passes back into their own zone. They then allow the opposition to roganize a forecheck, have lost two zones but POSSESSED the puck the entire time? A guy like Markov or Subban tries to make passes that create but will be penalized even though they eventually lead to more opportnities. These advanced stats are as flawed as any other. Just like plus/minus is useless without perspective so too is puck possession. The Red Wings were great at puck possession because they were an exrtemly skilled and fast hockey team, they were able to possess the puck because they were masters of puck support and highly skilled.More importantly they made positive plays while possessing the puck. All teams try to have the puck more than the other team....but if they are not making positive plays it is useless. Take our HAbs dmen who instead of getting pucks to the net dump it into the corner? HAbs retrieve puck, puck is safely 200 ft from HAbs net...do you think Markov or PK would dump that puck into the corner? what about Lidstrom? DOughty?...don;t think so. The advanced stats are not that advanced and are no better IMO than plus minus. You need to factor in different options, what the BEST decision was to make,etc. Sometimes the safest decision is not the best decsion and sometimes the risky decision is....it is too fast to measure with tehse metircs. You best stats...are wins and losses. As mentioned there are various types of puck possession and I agree it is very important...but puck possession of significance is important.
- Comment on Habs’ Gorges has surgery on fractured hand, out four weeks (2014-03-10 12:45:17)
Groges is one of the best...but Weaver is no clouch and last game he showed the same fearlessness. Given MOntreal expects it I suspect he will do exactly as Gorges does (gets PK duties in Monreal will make shot bloacking mandatory and passive pk will mean increased blocks for Weaver). HE is no slouch either...he is 59th....which means a top 2 shot blocker on his team and in his MTL role that will escalate I suspect. Even PK blocks shots in MOntreal...
- Comment on Habs’ Gorges has surgery on fractured hand, out four weeks (2014-03-10 12:39:51)
No it won't....Weaver plays exact same style....and is basically a RH version. When Waeaver was picked up it made no sense...then this new broke and it made perfect sense. Weaver is perfect replacement.
- Comment on Habs’ Gorges has surgery on fractured hand, out four weeks (2014-03-10 12:38:19)
I think he could probably be playing now and as is the case with Prust they are being conservative. The team is still in a very good position and as much as Habs were losng..so too were all of the teams competing for a playoff spot. Habs are still 94 percent faves to get into playoffs so why risk Price aggravating it again?
- Comment on Habs return home, won’t practise until Tuesday (2014-03-10 12:31:03)
I think that sentence ran 3 words too long.