Talik SanisMember since May 12, 2011
Habs fan since: 2008
Favorite current player: Max Pacioretty
All-time favorite player: Larry Robinson
- Comment on ‘I’m a pretty simple player,’ newest Hab Murray says (2013-08-24 09:47:13)
I'm afraid that I don't have the time to answer every point, so I apologize in advance for cherry-picking. "It is demonstrable that Murray lacks the ability to prevent shots? Funny, he finished 20th in the NHL in that statistic last season." We seem to be speaking about different kinds of shots – and that's my fault for being unspecific. I am not speaking of shots against the goaltender, but shots attempts as the article employs. The purpose in examining both Fenwick and Corsi here is, in part, to examine the effect of team shot-blocking. By the very possession statistics they examine, he was terrible at preventing shot attempts. "Arguing that process and results were examined is laughable." There is no argument as to both process and results being examined; this is a simple fact of their analysis, but it is again a matter of your misinterpreting my obvious meaning given the context. The processes examined is preventing shot attempts against. The result, however that result was achieved (in this case, by what “process” according to your consideration – Murray's style of play), was that he allowed a significant number of goals against, not just this year, but over the last three years, with a noticeable decline in his performance. "Honest question: how many regular season games did the guys over at Habs Eyes on the Prize actually watch Douglas Murray play before writing up their hatchet jobs on Murray? How many games did they watch the Sharks play while charting only the play of Murray? Answer truthfully." You know as well as I do that I can't answer that question, as I do not have intimate knowledge of their actions. I cannot deny the possibility that they did not watch him at all, but they never claimed to offer us a traditional scouting report; they gave us raw data on performance (my version) and results, simple prevention of goals. No one, least of all the writers at Eyes on the Prize, disregard actual viewings of players – visual scouting. Even the most strident proponents of advanced stats agree (and Berkshire has stated it repeatedly) that both a visual analysis of a player and a breakdown of his performance on a statistical level must be performed to provide context for one another. They are mutually complementary processes that both supply us with different forms of information that can then be used to form a better picture of a player, his strengths, and his weaknesses. Almost everyone believes this to be the case, save for those who outright dismiss advanced statistics. What you suggest is a mischaracterization of their beliefs on scouting and understanding both individual players and the game. You have created a straw man whose nose is buried in a statistics book and never looks up to watch a game. As for watching the game, I have gone back to watch him since his acquisition, and, while I try to maintain an unbiased perspective, I've always found Murray to be an unimpressive player at best, constantly losing races for loose pucks and missing positional assignments because of an overly-aggressive style. "Writing hatchet jobs on new signings is popular, but ultimately it is pointless. I could have written a brilliant expose on Hal Gill when he was signed by Pittsburgh based on his absolute stunning ineptitude with the Bruins and Leafs his previous three seasons. But then a funny thing happened…the game subtly changed, and Gill’s experience and style of play allowed him to be stunningly effective in Pittsburgh and then in especially in Montreal." You likely could have written such an article, however it is highly unlikely that you could not have done so using the same metrics employed here, as the same kinds of people on Eyes on the Prize who decry Murray's acquisition were not against Gill's signing in Montreal; the underlying statistics actually accorded with the perception that he was a valuable penalty-killer.
- Comment on ‘I’m a pretty simple player,’ newest Hab Murray says (2013-08-24 09:12:58)
Here's a crazy thought: maybe if you read the article, examining the many, specific reasons why they value Lehkonen, and his myriad above-average skills, more than Mccarron and De La Rose, you might actually understand why they value Lehkonen more than Maccarron and De La Rose, rather than being forced to cherry-pick an answer from the comments of the article. You might also what to focus on the issues of draft strategy - who can I get where? - injury concerns, and relative performance within and outside players' age groups.
- Comment on ‘I’m a pretty simple player,’ newest Hab Murray says (2013-08-24 08:33:36)
So, it is demonstrable that Murray lacks the ability to prevent shots on the penalty kill, which, lets say for the sake of argument, doesn't matter, and it is also demonstrable that he lacks the ability to prevent goals against on the penalty kill -- indeed, he has gotten worse at preventing both (though, again, lets say the former doesn't matter) -- why then do you think that he is a good penalty-killer? Do you have counter-evidence that suggests he has a positive effect on the penalty-kill? Can you answer the argument with more than a mischaracterization of the analysis of the "advanced stats crowd," who did not, if fact, just use Fenwick and corsi in their arguments, but examined both process and results?
- Comment on Laraque throws helmet into federal political ring; carves Parros (2013-07-10 00:46:14)
While it is oft-repeated that the Zimmerman case involves the "stand your ground" law, this is not actually the case so far as I understand it. According to the principle of Avoidance, you should not use force in self-defense if you have the opportunity to retreat. In states where "stand your ground" is in effect, one simply has no duty to make a reasonable attempt at retreat before using force in self-defense. By the Prosecution's theory of the case, stand your ground does not apply as Zimmerman was the aggressor. If Zimmerman was the aggressor, self-defense would be invalid, thus rendering “stand your ground” irrelevant unless he "recovered his innocence," a condition of which is that you exhaust every reasonable means of escape or withdraw (i.e. the former “victim” pursues you and becomes the aggressor). Another is if the initial aggressor’s non-deadly force is replied to with deadly force. By Zimmerman's theory of the case, “stand your ground” still would not apply, as, if he was under Martin, being beaten, as he claims, he would not have any ability to retreat, thus rendering “standing his ground” a moot point; he would, quite literally, have had no ground on which to stand, shall we say. According to Zimmerman, he used deadly force in self-defense when he had no ability to retreat, thus even in a state without “stand your ground,” there would have thus been no duty to retreat. The defense has not invoked the “stand your ground law;” they are appealing simply to standard self-defense. We should also note that, had the circumstances been revered, and Martin had survived by killing Zimmerman, any claim of self-defense on his part could – and I stress could, for the prosecution would have to develop the case and explore the evidence – have been invalidated by the testimony of Rachel Jeantel, who claimed that Martin told her that had reached his father's fiance's home and thus, it seems, returned down the path to where the confrontation with Zimmerman occurred.
- Comment on Laraque throws helmet into federal political ring; carves Parros (2013-07-10 00:13:25)
As in most states, Manslaughter is a lesser included offense in Florida on a 2nd degree Murder charge. The jury will have the option of finding Zimmerman guilty even if they believe that the Prosecution has failed to prove that Zimmerman possessed a "depraved mind," as is required for a conviction on the charge of 2nd degree Murder. Considering the inability of BDLR to present Zimmerman as either a "wannabe cop" or as a racist, given his tutoring of black youths and friendships with black individuals, one of whom testified in his defense, it appears unlikely that the jury will conclude that Zimmerman was of "depraved mind." However, to convict Zimmerman of Manslaughter still requires that the prosecution overcome his claim of self defense; that is, to disprove self-defense beyond a reasonable doubt. The requirements for Manslaughter can be proven (i.e. that Zimmerman's deliberate use of force resulted in Martin's death - no one disputes that, in fact). However, self-defense is essentially an insurmountable justification for the use of deadly force. It appears that the Prosecution has introduced some reasonable doubt about some elements in Zimmerman's narrative. The standard is proving guilt beyond a reasonable doubt, not introducing reasonable doubt about innocence. Even if the jury considers Manslaughter, the Prosecution appears to have been unable to eliminate the possibility of self-defense. God only knows whether or not Zimmerman is truly "guilty" as a matter of fact, but by the standards of proof defined by the American criminal justice system, it appears likely that he will be found not guilty of both second degree Murder and Manslaughter.
- Comment on Habs practise after Price named Molson Cup Player of the Year (2013-04-30 15:50:40)
When responding to an argument that is essentially "outliers invalidate a conclusion derived from a consideration of the statistical norm," sarcasm on this level is one of the few appropriate responses. I don't think that the folks over at EOTP would intend to reference Captain Planet, however, while poking fun at the pervading obsession over character. Also, go check out the comments in their article on Subban Vs. Karlsson. I am but a neophyte in the schools of satire and internet tough-guy-ism.
- Comment on Habs practise after Price named Molson Cup Player of the Year (2013-04-30 14:33:03)
Fenwick is useless. The Devils and Maple Leafs demonstrate this fact. The field of statistics does not acknowledge the possibility of randomness or outliers. No. No siree. It's not like it correlates with success or anything. http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/4/4/4178716/why-possession-matters-a-visual-guide-to-fenwick Nope. No correlation whatsoever. Useless. All that matters is heart. Heart!
- Comment on Habs given day off after win over Lightning (2013-04-19 23:02:39)
It's been a while, so you probably will not see this, but your numbers are more up to date. I didn't calculate mine; I simply went off numbers produced from a few games back.
- Comment on Habs given day off after win over Lightning (2013-04-19 16:57:33)
At even strength, our top four point producers per minute are: Pacioretty: 2.89 points/60min (1.08 goals) Gallagher: 2.66 points/60min (1.33 goals) Galchenyuk: 2.65 points/60min (1.01 goals) Eller: 2.29 points/60min (0.60 goals) It should be noted that Eller plays a less sheltered role than the others, having 10% higher defensive zone starts than Galchenyuk (weird, isn't it, considering how they have been line-mates for a while now) and more than 15% more than Gally and Patches.
- Comment on Penguins move into first place with win over Bruins (2013-03-17 20:06:14)
Brady Vail, the player we selected with our fourth round pick in the 2012 entry draft, will apparently join the Hamilton Bulldogs this Tuesday. https://twitter.com/winstarparker/status/313401412879003649 Though Vail essentially matched his point production from last year, his plus/minus suffered a precipitous drop. However, reports on his defensive play have generally been quite positive; in a West Conference OHL coaches poll, Vail was rated the second best defensive forward. His production doubtlessly suffered due to the injuries that decimated the Spitfire's defense and forced the team to deploy him as a defenseman. His unsightly plus/minus stat is a partial product of playing for a team that bleeds scoring chances.