Flyers make big move

Weber
Oh yeah, National Hockey League owners need contract concessions from the Players Association … for the good of the game, and all that.
The Philadelphia Flyers have signed Nashville Predators defenceman Shea Weber (Josh Gorges’ D partner with the Kelowna Rockets) to a $100 million offer sheet.
Weber would fill the vacancy on the Philadelphia blueline created by Chris Pronger’s injury and Matt Carle’s departure to Tampa Bay.

The story from Philadelphia.

The contract would cover 14 years … this while the NHL is seeking a five-year limit on contracts.

According to (Darren) Dreger, the deal may be structured in a way that would prevent a small-market club like Nashville from matching the offer, by way of $26 million in signing bonuses between now and July 1, 2013. That may be tough for Nashville to match, since they would be forking over nearly 16 percent of their entire franchise’s net worth ($163 million in 2011 according to Forbes magazine) in one calendar year.

Terry Jones of the Edmonton Sun on Twitter: I’ve seen coaches lose the dressing room. But I think we’re watching Gary Bettman lose the board room.

And Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe: First Suter. Now Weber. That ‘Predators’ tag is looking, well, a little bit ironic?

944 Comments

  1. Un Canadien errant says:

    I tried to post my comments on the Shea Weber offer sheet, but somehow it’s not showing up on here. If you’re interested follow the link below.

    http://relentlessineptitude.blogspot.ca/2012/07/the-flyers-sign-shea-weber-to-offer.html

    ———————————————————————–
    June 22: Alex Galchenyuk [x]
    June 23: Stefan Matteau, Mike Matheson, Martin Frk, Brandon Whitney
    June 2429: Travis Moen [x]
    June 2627: Mathieu Darche
    June 26: Ryan White
    June 30: Alexei Emelin
    July 1: P.A. Parenteau, Taylor Pyatt
    July 3: Shane O’Brien
    July 52: Carey Price [x]
    July 6: Lars Eller
    July 9: P.K. Subban
    Sept. 15: Training camps open
    Oct. 11: Puck drop, Canadiens vs. Senators

    • Bripro says:

      I tried the same, Norm and it didn’t show mine either. Funny…

      How’s life treating you these days? Anything to add to that great profile the Gazette had on you? Are you jumping tall buildings in a single bound yet? ;)

      • Un Canadien errant says:

        When I tried to post again, I got a message telling me: “It looks like you’ve already said that.” Apparently not, but whatever.

        Things are good, summer started late in Whistler, like usual, but now we’re getting dry scorchers everyday. Great weather, much better than the humid days of summer in Montréal. Now if only we could import the Jazz Festival here, and proper smoked meat…

        • Bripro says:

          I’ll give you that.
          But I think I’d rather take your scenery thanks.

          • Un Canadien errant says:

            The scenery at the Jazz Festival ain’t bad at all.

            I can always head to Rainbow Beach, but as I explain to my friends, I don’t really want to be Old Creepy Dude there. I long for the days when I was Age-Appropriate Creepy Dude.

        • boing007 says:

          It’s less and less a jazz festival and becoming more like a world music festival.

          Richard R
          Price is an oyster. Unfortunately not all oysters produce pearls.

    • HardHabits says:

      This place is for comments not tomes. You should know by now that they’ve put a character limit on your posts and have many of them flagged as spam. I wonder how long until you get approached by some pretentious blog asking you to be one of their many writers so that you can become a Twitter wannabe and show up here every once in a while to tell us how sought after you are and how you were scouted and how they asked you and how people all over the Internets think you’re all that.

      Sorry. Confused you with Berkshiter.

      One thing for certain. The Internet has proven that the whole million monkeys with typewriters producing the works of Shakespeare thing is so very, very wrong.

      Ooh-ooh-ooh-ooh.

      :-D

      • Bripro says:

        I think that’s the funniest post I’ve ever read from you. Great stuff!
        :D

      • Trisomy 21 says:

        Hey man, don’t mock Andrew Berkshire, he was mentioned by Jay Feaster on TV. I believe he referred to him as a “blogger in the basement in his underwear”

        Respek

      • Un Canadien errant says:

        HH, at the Summit, Bettman willing, bring your laptop, and after you’ve bought me that beer you owe me, I’ll show you how to use the PgUp and PgDn keys, they work like gangbusters.

        I’ve already been approached by Bleacher Report to write for them. Every time I make a mistake and follow a link to their site, there it is, right at the top of the page, an invite to join their legion of writers and cover the Chargers.

        Also, I get a lot of mail telling me I’m pre-approved for an assortment of credit cards.

      • Kristopher7 says:

        “Berkshiter”, LMFAO!!
        Yes, good stuff.

      • Un Canadien errant says:

        Again, problems with statistics and probability at HIO on this fine day.

        It’s not merely a million monkeys with typewriters producing the works of Shakespeare, you have to include the concept of infinite time. The internet has been around for only a year or two, not enough time.

        And gauging from this snippet from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem , we at HIO are a little bit more advanced than the monkeys.

        In 2003, lecturers and students from the University of Plymouth MediaLab Arts course used a £2,000 grant from the Arts Council to study the literary output of real monkeys. They left a computer keyboard in the enclosure of six Celebes Crested Macaques in Paignton Zoo in Devon in England for a month, with a radio link to broadcast the results on a website.

        Not only did the monkeys produce nothing but five pages consisting largely of the letter S, the lead male began by bashing the keyboard with a stone, and the monkeys continued by urinating and defecating on it. Phillips said that the artist-funded project was primarily performance art, and they had learned “an awful lot” from it. He concluded that monkeys “are not random generators. They’re more complex than that. … They were quite interested in the screen, and they saw that when they typed a letter, something happened. There was a level of intention there.”

  2. TomNickle says:

    I don’t understand all of the bleeding hearts for the Nashville Predators. It’s like going to a casino. If you can’t afford to lose the money you shouldn’t go.

    If you can’t afford to pay star players in a professional league you shouldn’t own a professional sports franchise.

    No sympathy here.

  3. EasternOntarioHabsFan says:

    okay, I try my very best to be respectful, polite, and civil, and to earn respect, but In this case, I can’t help myself.

    The guy who says Sergei Gonchar is better then Scott Stevens is a F**king idiot

    there

    • Chris says:

      Gonchar was extraordinarily underrated throughout his career while I truly believe that Scott Stevens was one of the more over-rated players throughout his own career.

      That being said, Stevens was probably the better player. His offensive numbers are extremely inflated from having played during the run and gun period from 1982-1993, but there is no question he was a more dominant defensive player.

      Gonchar’s effect was best seen when he was injured the season the Penguins won the Stanley Cup. Without him, they were on the playoff bubble. With him, they were absolutely dominant, and that was despite playing with a wonky knee.

      • TorontoHabsFan says:

        Ah, but you see, Gonchar never hit..and that’s the only way to effectively judge a defenceman (apparently).

        • EasternOntarioHabsFan says:

          unless they have exceptional offensive upside (Coffey) or are very good at reading the game (Lidstrom, Markov) then yes, it actually is

          • TorontoHabsFan says:

            Gonchar – 748 career points. 398 on the PP.

            I’d say that’s pretty useful.

          • EasternOntarioHabsFan says:

            there is no doubting that – but he was nowhere near the defensive and physical force that Stevens was.

            Nor did he ever win the Conn Smythe Trophy

          • TorontoHabsFan says:

            It has proven pretty difficult for anybody not named Lidstrom to win the Norris recently….

            edit

            My bad…I didn’t see that you went with Conn Smythe instead of Norris (which Stevens never won). Is that the only major trophy Stevens has won? I don’t know if I’d use that as a measuring stick of greatness – unless you think Cam Ward, Bill Ranford, Brad Richards, Mike Vernon and Ron Hextall are all-time greats?

          • EasternOntarioHabsFan says:

            Lidstrom was a one in a million Defenseman, the rare one to dominate the game without being a physical player.

            Stevens was a great defenseman too, but he played a different game then Lidstrom.

            Comparing the two is like comparing a Ferrari and a monster truck because they both have wheels

            edit
            Just reinforcing that Gonchar has never won a Conn Smythe OR a Norris, or any other major trophy for that matter

          • TorontoHabsFan says:

            Man, you were the one who made the argument that unless a defenceman is like Lidstrom, Coffey, or Markov* then the only way to judge a defenceman is based on his ability to hit.

            *I think most would argue that Gonchar and Markov are quite comparable.

          • EasternOntarioHabsFan says:

            I never said that it was the ONLY way, I just said that unless the defenseman has great offensive upside, or a wonderful cerebral game, then he had better be physical, because if he is not offensive, or physical, then he is basically useless as a Defenseman.

            therefore he would be unable to put up numbers from the point, and could not compensate by being a solid physical presence

      • ebk says:

        agree about Gonchar but Scott Stevens being over-rated is absolutely stunning! I’d take him on my team in a heartbeat

        http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=5180

        • EasternOntarioHabsFan says:

          + 1

        • Chris says:

          I would too Earl (and holy crap I haven’t seen you in forever!).

          I just don’t think he was **THAT** much better than everybody else. He was an absolutely phenomenal defenceman, but he is one of those rare players that just keeps improving as time passes since his retirement. :)

          Stevens was a very good offensive defenceman with some grit early in his career, and in the second half of his career he was an elite defensive defenceman that sometimes could get a little carried away with going for huge hits.

          As good as his career numbers were, they would probably have been even better if the Devils hadn’t drafted Niedermayer. Stevens probably suffered a bit after that.

          Now that I think of it, your team will win a LOT of games with a #1 pairing of Scott Stevens and Sergei Gonchar!

  4. Mavid says:

    84 days to go

  5. Chris says:

    Regarding drafting 20-30…

    I took a look at the drafts from 1995-2004, a period of ten years, over which the success rates should be pretty established by now. Any later and you start running into late-bloomers and any earlier becomes distorted because Europe was not as actively drafted. Still, it gives a good sample set.

    I took any player to have less than 100 NHL games played to be a bust. A first round pick with fewer than 100 games basically didn’t make it. I also tried to look for stars.

    Of the 110 players picked over those ten drafts, 41 were busts, represent 37% of the players selected. If you consider players that played fewer than 250 games to be busts, there are an additional 7 guys (6%) that get added in, so basically not a big effect.

    Of the remaining 62 (56%), the vast majority were role players. The guys that I considered to be top-6 forwards or top-4 defencemen or starting goaltenders, my definition of a successful first round pick, were:

    Daniel Briere, Brenden Morrow, Jiri Fischer (cut short by injury), Alexander Frolov, Anton Volchenkov, Simon Gagne, Scott Gomez, Martin Havlat, Justin Williams, Niklas Kronwall, Brad Boyes, Cam Ward, Alexander Steen, Brent Burns, Ryan Kesler, Mike Richards, Corey Perry, Travis Zajac, Corey Schneider, Mike Green, Andrej Meszaros and Jeff Schultz.

    That’s 22 guys, representing a 20% shot of finding a key player in slots 20-30 in the draft.

    After that, you get the role players, the most notable of which were guys like:

    Marco Sturm, Scott Hannan, Jonathan Cheechoo, Nick Boynton, Steve Ott, Marcel Goc, Colby Armstrong, Tim Gleason, David Steckel, Daniel Paille, Anton Babchuk and Wojtek Wolski (others might have a different list, but they can compile it themselves!).

    By my crude reckoning, you’ve got basically a 1 in 5 shot of landing a good core player with a picks 20-30. Using proper probability statistics here is beyond me here because the problem is hopelessly ill-defined (not every draft is equal, not every team’s scouting staff is equal, etc.). But let’s just pretend that everything is equal…that 1 in 5 shot each year should multiply through for each draft. That would mean your odds of getting two such core players are 1 in 25 (4%), while you have a 1 in 125 (0.8%) shot of three core players and a 1 in 625 shot (0.16%) of landing four core players.

    Earlier, Ed said that the going rate for a player like Weber would be one top-6 forward, one top-4 defenceman and two first round picks and I agree with that assessment. Taking four picks instead is a poor bargain by the (admittedly very) crude statistics above…you’ve got a 4% chance of accomplishing the “going rate” for a player of that magnitude.

    Another way of looking at it…let’s pretend that the pick was 20th each year, taking what many see as a “best-case scenario” if Weber turns Philadelphia into a contender for the next four seasons:

    2012: Scott Laughton (PHI)
    2011: Connor Murphy (PHX)
    2010: Beau Bennett (PIT)
    2009: Jacob Josefson (NJ)
    2008: Michael Del Zotto (NYR)
    2007: Angelo Esposito (PIT)
    2006: David Fischer (MTL)
    2005: Kenndal McCardle (FLA)
    2004: Travis Zajac (NJ)
    2003: Brent Burns (MIN)
    2002: Daniel Paille (BUF)
    2001: Marcel Goc (SJ)
    2000: Alexander Frolov (LA)
    1999: Barrett Heisten (BUF)
    1998: Scott Parker (COL)
    1997: Mike Brown (FLA)
    1996: Marcus Nilson (FLA)
    1995: Denis Gauthier (CGY)
    1994: Jason Botterill (DAL)
    1993: Mike Wilson (VAN)
    1992: David Wilkie (MTL)
    1991: Martin Rucinsky (EDM)
    1990: Martin Brodeur (NJ)

    Knowing that this does not take into account faith in your scouting staff (most scouts think they know who the best player is going to be, but some obviously get it right more often than others), there isn’t a single run of four years there that I would trade straight-up for Shea Weber.

    Of course, you could argue that packaging the incoming picks with your own to move up in the draft would change the analysis, but on first glance taking the picks isn’t necessarily a given.

    I personally would take the picks because Weber is not going to help that team contend with the losses of Suter, Radulov and Kostitsyn (or the resources used to acquire those players). Nashville had their window, and now it is closed so they may as well rebuild through the draft.

    • TomNickle says:

      And it’s all making the assumption that each pick will be in that range.

      Some think that the Flyers are immune to a poor regular season, but I don’t. They’re very young and very fragile on defense. Giroux has an early concussion history, Bryzgalov is enigmatic and players like Couturier, Simmonds, Schenn and Read are unproven.

      But the analysis is good and has me thinking more about my opinion on the matter even though first round picks are currency as much as potential.

      • Chris says:

        It’s not a bad assumption. Over the past fifteen drafts, here is where the Flyers have drafted:

        20, 25, 29, 21, 27, 2, 22, 20 (2005 lottery), 25, 24, 26, 27, 28, 22, 22

        The only year they weren’t in that 20-30 range was the 2007 draft following a season where they were absolutely ravaged by injuries.

        The Flyers managed to rebuild on the fly and have a very young and exciting team. Their offence is in good hands for the next 3-5 years with Giroux, Voracek, Hartnell, Couturier (who I think will take a big step forward next season), Simmonds and Schenn, who they can ease into the lineup. Their defence corps is decent (Timonen, Schenn, Coburn, Meszaros) but becomes very strong if they have Weber for 25 minutes a night. Bryzgalov does not instill a lot of playoff confidence, but he’s shown in Phoenix that he can get the job done behind a good defence.

        The thing with Philadelphia is that they are always in the playoff mix and, once there, they are built in such a way that they are a very tough out. This ensures that they pick low every year.

        • TomNickle says:

          If I could compile a list of teams whose first round picks I didn’t want the Flyers would be near the top. And you can call me crazy if you like but I think the Red Wings will miss the playoffs this coming season. Every team is one injury away from missing it and the Flyers are no exception. It just has to be the right injury as terrible as that sounds.

          • HabFab says:

            I can’t understand you guys carrying on about Yannick Weber like this. Totally baffled!

          • Chris says:

            I think Detroit is in trouble this season. But then again, I was predicting their impeding doom earlier in the season and people had very good reasons for why I was wrong.

            If Giroux or Weber were to be injured, they could be in trouble, of course. But that is an awfully tough track record to beat…the Flyers management has always found a way to get things done. They also have such a young team that they can afford to be patient with their current prospects or even consider trading some of them throughout the season for impending UFA help should an injury strike.

            Holmgren has demonstrated time and time again that he is willing to be bold in moving his team forwards.

          • TomNickle says:

            Holmgren is the best GM in the league for my money but I don’t see how they can overcome an injury to Giroux or Weber(assuming the Preds don’t match).

    • ebk says:

      2005 Luc Bourdon
      2004 Boris Valabik
      2003 Andre Kostitsyn
      2002 Eric Nystrom
      2001 Dan Blackburn
      2000 Mikhail Yakubov
      1999 Branislav Mezei
      1998 Nikolai Antropov
      1997 Brad Ference
      1996 Lance Ward
      1995 Radek Dvorak
      1994 Nolan Baumgartner
      1993 Jocelyn Thibault
      1992 Andrei Nazarov
      1991 Martin Lapointe
      1990 Drake Berehowsky

      Taking it one step further, here are the players selected #10 overall for the period of 2005 to 1990. Not only can I not find a four year period that I would trade for Weber. I wouldn’t trade Weber for the whole lot.

    • bleedhabs81 says:

      Chris… I can find one instance where you are wrong about the picks not being worth it.

      1990…. the year fatty was drafted. I would rather build around 20 years of Marty F. then 10 years of Shea Weber. Who cares what the other picks get.

      • Chris says:

        Kind of proves the point, though. You have to go back 22 years to a time when goalies were almost never drafted in the first round to find a guy at that draft position that you would even consider trading straight up.

        1 guy in 22 drafts, and it is at a position where there is starting to be a bit of a glut.

        Put Shea Weber in front of Ilya Bryzgalov and you might get a guy who isn’t too far off Martin Brodeur.

        Put Martin Brodeur behind a couple of the defencemen from that list and you get a guy who might not be a bad approximation of our old friend Red Light Racicot. :)

  6. TomNickle says:

    Steve Simmons on Off The Record just said the Predators have to match. If I’m Poile, that’s reason enough for me not to.

    ;)

  7. twilighthours says:

    Taking my kids to the park. Good discussion on here today, though.

    Weber for 4 first rounders… tough call. Gotta think about it. Probably go with player.

    Stamkos for 4 first rounders. No brainer. Do it in a heartbeat.

    Obviously, team giving back the picks is important as to where they fall in the draft order. Even with Stamkos, I’d do it. You’re hardly likely to find a Stamkos outside the top 3 anytime soon. Even then.

    So I think Stamkos is more valuable than Weber.

    I imagine that if someone did a detailed analysis of picks 20-30 of the last several years (cue Jordio) we’d find that the risk at picking there – even 4 times in a row – isn’t worth a stud franchise player.

    Then we can have a detailed discussion of random variables, “the law of averages” and what a statistic actually is.

    Until then, I’m out. Take care of yourselves and enjoy the nice weather. I love you all. Especially you, Commandant. Even you, Tom. All of you. And it’s fantastic man-love.

    • TomNickle says:

      Gee thanks. Even though you’re presuming again that all of the picks will be in the 20-30 range.

    • Kfourn says:

      I don’t think I would evaluate Stamkos as ‘more valuable’ than Weber. Sure Stamkos is a goal scorer and “flashier”, but Weber brings a lot to the table. Over 25mins a game, shut down, PP, big hitter, nasty streak….I would even argue he is more valuable because I believe championships are won with good defense first.

      _______________________________________________________
      Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

      “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

  8. TorontoHabsFan says:

    Maybe it’s just me, but I get the feeling like everyone is talking just ’cause they’re starved for hockey news.

    I’m guessing that Nashville signs Weber and then hopes against hope that the league is at least semi-successful in their demands and contracts get capped at 7 years and are pulled back close to whatever percentage they were aiming for (i’m too lazy to look it up).

    Even with the huge signing bonus (which I’m thinking might b be rendered null and void if the owners REALLy get their way), I have a hard time seeing Nashville giving up on both Suter and Weber

    • TomNickle says:

      Any contract signed prior to the new CBA provided there is one will have to be honoured.

      And since his contract is signed, the NHL can void it now or never.

      • TorontoHabsFan says:

        Are we certain about that? I seem to recall contracts being contracted after the lockout (but I fully realize I might be mis-remembering)

        • TomNickle says:

          Good luck fighting an agent in court if you’re voiding a contract based on a collective bargaining agreement that was made following the contract being signed.

          • TorontoHabsFan says:

            Did they not roll back salaries upwards of 25% last time? Again, I fully admit, I might be mis-remembering…

          • TomNickle says:

            Salaries were rolled back in the last negotiations yes but there’s no way in hell the players agree to a salary rollback at a time when league revenues have gone up by over a billion dollars in less than ten years.

            If it happens. I’ll eat two litres of crow.

          • TorontoHabsFan says:

            But it’s still in the realm of possible outcomes though…right?

          • TomNickle says:

            Yes. But with Donald Fehr leading the players. I stand a better chance of winning Lotto Max.

          • TorontoHabsFan says:

            Oh I don’t know about that…based on the number of conglomerates that own NHL franchises, my suspicion is that they’d be more than willing to sacrifice a year or two of revenues from one of their revenue streams for what they might perceive to be more cost certainty from from that revenue stream. Or put another way – I suspect the players will need the NHL before the NHL will need the players.

            (That’s just my completely ill-informed opinion though)

          • TomNickle says:

            European leagues are healthier than ever and tax rates overseas by large majority are far lower than in North America.

            The players aren’t in a bad position this time around.

      • Chris says:

        Minus potential salary rollbacks.

  9. ont fan says:

    Friedman said Weber wanted a long term contract with anyone because it would cost him 50 mill. if he didn’t get a deal done this summer. Friedman said Semin will go to Detroit for one year. Bobby Ryan will get traded. Perry and Getzlaf will try and do a deal like Suter and Parise.

    • habstrinifan says:

      Wonder how many agents are advising players to try and insist on ‘long term’ deals and the appropriate salary for fear that they too will lose money under possible changes. This very well could be a major reason why P.K is not yet signed. I am not saying Weber type money but his agent must be insisting on a contract that would insulate him against changes in the CBA.

  10. Kfourn says:

    So Poile must be kicking himself that he didn’t bite the bullet and sign Weber to a long term deal before arbitration awarded him a one year 7.5 mil contract last off-season…the arbitration meant that no team could give him an offer sheet.

    _______________________________________________________
    Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

    “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

    • TomNickle says:

      That again is assuming Weber was willing to sign a long term deal with Nashville, which he reportedly wasn’t.

      • Kfourn says:

        Even a short term deal would have given him more time to come up with a good trade. If all sign pointed to him not wanting to stay you have to believe that Poile would have caught on to that and evaluated all possible senarios…such as him signing an offer sheet. Now he’s pretty much handcuffed himself.

        _______________________________________________________
        Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

        “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

        • TomNickle says:

          Poile was trying to trade him.

          • Kfourn says:

            Yes when he caught wind of the offer sheet….he should have been on that much sooner….or signed Weber to a 2/3 year contract and buy him some time to get a better trade.

            _______________________________________________________
            Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

            “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

          • TomNickle says:

            Weber was talking to at least four teams about signing an offer sheet and you think the trade discussion commenced just when Poile caught word of that?

            If Poile has any brains he was listening to offers when Weber rejected his first contract proposal.

          • Kfourn says:

            But Weber was also reportedly shocked when Suter signed with Minnesota instead of the Preds…how much time did Poile really know that Weber wanted out.

            _______________________________________________________
            Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

            “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

          • TomNickle says:

            Weber has been eligible for a contract extension since his arbitration award.

            That speaks volumes.

          • Kfourn says:

            I understand that, but you have to find at least suspicious that his D partner signs elsewhere, which he is shocked to find out and then he signs an offer sheet a couple of weeks later….I’m not convinced that Poile was even working on an extension during the season.

            _______________________________________________________
            Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

            “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

  11. TomNickle says:

    The Shea Weber situation and its correlation to draft picks is funny. Everyone disagreeing with me about taking the picks is forgetting that he signed an offer sheet with a different team and has had the opportunity to sign a contract extension for a year.

    David Poile can match, but how happy will Weber be? I understand the selling your team to the market argument. But they didn’t exactly start off with a rabid fanbase.

    Those picks, even Philadelphia’s coupled with Nashville’s own could prove to be the best move.

    It’s a roll of the dice yes, but I maintain that with a scouting department that found Weber in the second round in the first place, I’ll take that chance.

    • shiram says:

      Preds need those picks to sign more Gaustad’s! I think if I was in Poile’s shoe I’d take the picks too, and hope the fans stay on board.

    • Cal says:

      The problem with that is all the time and effort made to help Weber become the player he is RIGHT NOW. You mentioned below that I would take 4 40 goal scorers replacing Weber any day. You do realize only 4 NHL players reached 40 + goals last season, yes? Only 30 scored 30+.
      Can Nashville make 8 1st round picks worthwhile enough for their fan base to imitate the ever-losing Oilers fans’ patience? There is a win-now attitude that may hurt certain clubs, but Nashville really does need to keep its one and now only superstar player.

      • TomNickle says:

        I didn’t say I would take four fourty goal scorers. I said I would take one at a lower salary over one at a higher salary. Or if you prefer, a player on an entry level deal instead of a player in his late twenties earning nearly $8 million annually.

        The funny thing about this “win now” argument is that there always comes a time when a team is bad. If that franchise is in so much trouble that one bad season will ruin them, they’re done anyway.

        • Cal says:

          Players on their entry level deals scoring at a half goal per game average are few and far between. These same young players rarely lead teams to Cups. The exception is the Penguins and perhaps Chicago, but there was a solid veteran presence in both cases.
          The Oilers have a lot of great young talent, yet they lose and lose often. There’s something to be said for veteran leadership and a balanced team. Teams like that which don’t have to be blown up after a Cup run are the ones which are long term successful, like the Red Wings.
          It took Ilitch a long time (almost all of Yzerman’s career) to get the right management and scouting team in place to make them perennial contenders. If the Nashville team does not get a proper ruling on this deal from the NHL, fans in small markets everywhere may as well put the “For Sale” signs out.

          • TomNickle says:

            You want Nashville to get this contract voided? Why? If they aren’t prepared to pay superstars why does their ownership group have an NHL franchise?

            Your time would be better served pushing contraction.

  12. Habilis says:

    Dreger is saying that the Preds knew about the offer wednesday morning and spent the entire day trying to work out a trade. Apparently they wanted Couturier and Brayden Schenn plus something else. Once that became apparent, Philly pulled the trigger on the offer sheet.

    To me it sounds like Philly would rather give up four firsts than Couturier and Schenn and given what their team will look like with Weber on the blue line, I have to agree with that.

  13. smiler2729 says:

    Yawn… CBA crap… Overrated Weber and stupid GMs/owners… Can Bettman save them from themselves?
    To the Bettphone and stay tuned tomorrow, same Bett-time, same Bett-bullsh*t.

    _______________________________________
    Calling it like it is:
    Jack Edwards is a clam.
    Tim Thomas is a Nugentian lunatic.
    Boston Bruins, gutless diving weasel pukes.

  14. JUST ME says:

    Everybody is weighing the 4 first round pick against Weber but nobody is talking about what will be left in Nashville to attract fans or even worse how many fans will not come back to the games. We should know better , remember the fire sales of the Expos ?

    That is exactly what is happening in Nashville. They made promises saying that if the fans came, they would make every effort to have the best team possible. They had a legitimate shot in the last playoffs and quite frankly the fans were there and seemed to enjoy it and cheered loudly for the Preds.

    If they lose Weber it will be a bit much for them or at least a sour message. Suter,Bouillon,Rdulov,A.K. (!!!) and now Weber ? By the way in all of those Bouillon is probably for them the biggest lost for the same reasons we used to appreciate him here. A blue collar worker,intense,reliable and dedicated.

    Anyway, i think that the Preds have no choice if they want to survive on short term. They may gain 4 first late round pick but if they lose thousands of fans in a fragile market … An offer sheet is kind of an hostile takeover. You are not in control of your destiny and it`s all or nothing.

  15. ont fan says:

    Sportsnet said Weber was talking to Philly,Vancouver and the Rangers.His agent is coming on McGowans show if your interested.

  16. Jan_pronounced_Yan says:

    I agree with TomNickle in a way, because he is looking at it from a scout’s perspective. If you have a good scouting department and a good drafting record, it doesn’t really matter that the picks will be late. Having 2 first-rounders every year for four years should almost guarantee that you come away with a handful of quality players. Maybe none of those guys turns out to be a Shea Weber, but you probably get a lot more quality depth and end up being a better team for it.

    It all depends on the team receiving the compensation. If it were Columbus with their spotty drafting record, the picks don’t mean as much because they really are a crapshoot. But, wouldn’t you guys feel good about Trevor Timmins going into the next 4 drafts with 2 1st-rounders every time? I would be pretty confident that he could find a player close to Weber’s equal and a whole lot of quality depth.

  17. habsnyc says:

    This deal goes to the viability of Nashville as a franchise. Without Weber and Suter they go from being an exciting young team knocking on the door of contending to a team devoid of two top stars. They need Weber in order to sell seats and convince fans they are serious about winning. You can’t put four draft picks on a billboard.

    The Flyers are trying to muck the waters across the league. They made huge offers to Suter and Parise to force the bidding upwards for them, knowing that neither would sign with them.

    Blue, blanc et rouge. Red and White for Canada. Blue for Smurfs.

    • ed lopaz says:

      I agree.

      In the end you can draft great players but you might not have any fans left to watch them 5-8 years from now.

      the 2 first rounders 4 years from now might be good NHL players in 2019.

      Will Nashville even be in the NHL in 2019?

  18. commandant says:

    Washington got five first round picks for Scott Stevens and ended up with Sergei Gonchar, Brendan Witt and three busts out of the deal.

    Do you think they’d have rather kept Stevens?

    I do.

    Go Habs Go!
    NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
    Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
    http://lastwordonsports.com/

    • TomNickle says:

      And what era was that in?

      Come on. For a guy correcting me about a player flip flopping from the wing to centre you sure made a liberal comparison in offer sheets.

      • commandant says:

        We don’t have any offer sheets today where 4 first rounders was the compensation.

        I picked the only offer sheet in any era, where the actuall exchange was a similar number of first round picks.

        Every other offer sheet has seen different compensation, or trading the picks back to the original team, ala Chris Gratton, for other players.

        Go Habs Go!
        NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
        Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
        http://lastwordonsports.com/

        • TomNickle says:

          That era isn’t even comparable to this era.

        • Cardiac says:

          A short list of players the Caps could have chose instead of Gonchar, Witt, Baumgartner:

          Martin Straka
          Adam Deadmarsh
          Jason Allison
          Saku Koivu
          Todd Bertuzzi
          Jeff Friesen
          Mattias Ohlund

          “There’s genius everywhere, but until they turn pro, it’s like popcorn in the pan. Some pop… some don’t.”
          – Jerry Maguire

          • Sean Bonjovi says:

            Deadmarsh, and Allison could have had amazing careers if not for the concussions.

          • commandant says:

            could have, would have, should have, are all the equivalent of didnt

            No team will make the right pick 4 straight times. The chances of not ending up with some busts are near nil.

            Go Habs Go!
            NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
            Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
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    • Sean Bonjovi says:

      How good do you think Scott Stevens was?

      • commandant says:

        Hall of fame

        One of the best Canadian D for a decade

        1991 Canada Cup winner
        1996 World Cup of Hockey (picked to play on team Canada)
        1998 Olympian

        3 time Stanley Cup Champion

        2 time NHL First All-Star Team (end of season, ie top 2 dmen in NHL)
        3 more times NHL Second All-Star Team (ie top 4 dman in the NHL

        Conn Smythe Trophy (Playoff MVP)

        Played in thirteen NHL All-Star Games

        Go Habs Go!
        NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
        Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
        http://lastwordonsports.com/

        • Sean Bonjovi says:

          double

        • Sean Bonjovi says:

          Stevens was/is over-rated

          Sergei Gonchar is STILL playing hockey!

          • commandant says:

            Yeah, he’s also younger, which is what happens when you have to wait for your first round pick while the other team got Scott Stevens that day.

            And he isn’t playing hockey in Washington, and Washington didn’t win a damn thing with those picks.

            Stevens is the better player, not many would argue that.

            Go Habs Go!
            NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
            Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
            http://lastwordonsports.com/

    • Cardiac says:

      Hindsight…

      However, scouting and player development has changed since the early 90s.

      “There’s genius everywhere, but until they turn pro, it’s like popcorn in the pan. Some pop… some don’t.”
      – Jerry Maguire

  19. EasternOntarioHabsFan says:

    So I take it that Pronger is finished

    shame

  20. Praj12 says:

    Why do I get the feeling that some of the “experts” here on HIO are trying to qualify for a hockey analyst’s job. Armchair GM’s is all you guys are and that’s why you guys post here and are not make these comments with the staff of an NHL franchise. At the very least its entertaining to read.

    HABS fan since ’68

  21. ed lopaz says:

    Tom,

    Weber is more than Nashville’s “best defenceman”.

    With Markov injured, Subban is our “best defenceman”.

    Weber is the core of the franchise,
    the team captain,
    and one of the 2 or 3 best defenceman in the league,
    and is only 27 years old.

    Trading Weber for 4 picks that have no names??

    I wouldn’t be happy if I was a Nashville season ticket holder.

    Certain teams can not afford to rebuild and rebuild and rebuild.

    They need to build, hold, and win.

    Like you said, rebuilding is interesting for the scouts, for knowledgeable hockey fans.

    in Nashville, they need to freakin WIN!!

    • TomNickle says:

      Ed I think Weber is the best defenseman in the league. I’ll take my chances with 8 first round picks in four years though. Call me crazy, stupid, whatever.

      With a scouting staff that I hand picked and the ability to make the final call on each player selected I’m taking the picks. I realize it’s boom or bust but I’m taking it.

      In a league where parity is King, a bounty of picks like that could produce a dynasty for the ages.

      Weber can’t do that on his own.

      • ed lopaz says:

        it seems to me that Nashville “might” build a dynasty and then lose those 8 first rounders before they ever win anything.

        I went through this with the 1994 Expos.

        Eventually the fans pack it in and the team moves to KC, Seattle or Quebec City.

        • TomNickle says:

          Now give those draft picks to Trevor Timmins and how do you feel?

          • HardHabits says:

            Much better now that Gainey/Gauthier/Martin aren’t trading those picks for over-the-hill past their best before date washed up and overpriced veterans.

          • TomNickle says:

            Fair enough. I’m still taking the picks and saying thank you sir may I have another?

            Offer sheet all of my arbitration eligible players. I’ll match on offers that are at a reasonable salary and you can pay me your next five years as compensation every time that I don’t.

      • habsnyc says:

        The Ducks had five firsts, six seconds and five thirds over three years and got nothing for it (some of the picks they acquired were traded). The Ducks traded several picks and plaeyrs for Chris Pronger and won the Cup. For the Ducks, trading picks for a star led to a cup and trading players for picks led to nothing. Granted your results may vary.

        Blue, blanc et rouge. Red and White for Canada. Blue for Smurfs.

    • Jan_pronounced_Yan says:

      They couldn’t win with Weber, Suter and a bunch of deadline acquisitions. What makes you think they’re better off keeping Weber and rolling the dice with less depth?

      Whether they match or not, their team will be worse next year now that Suter, Radulov and AK are gone. It’ll always be a hard sell in Nashville. If they draft well with 8 first-round picks, they could actually build something.

  22. DCH says:

    Four first rounders for Weber? I’d take it, even though Weber is a beast.

  23. shiram says:

    It was never confirmed that the Islanders offered their whole drafting picks, this guy wrote that it was never offered.
    http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/islanders/source_no_jacket_deal_n39ehcB8NNkREmWUmBFsoI

    • TomNickle says:

      Aaron Portzline is as connected as any beat writer in the World and confirmed through Scott Howson that the offer was made.

      • shiram says:

        I’ve searched a bit more, and I what i read seems to say they would have offered their whole draft picks only if Yakupov would not have went first overall. The offer with Yakupov off the table was a lesser one.

        • commandant says:

          what doesn’t make sense is that they never made the same offer (their entire draft) to the oilers for 1st overall.

          If they wanted Yakupov, why not try offering the same package to Edmonton?

          Go Habs Go!
          NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
          Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
          http://lastwordonsports.com/

          • shiram says:

            There is alot of missing information, so there is nothing to say they did not try to make a deal with Edmonton.

      • Praj12 says:

        DO you know Aaron personally Tom?

        • Cardiac says:

          Do you read sports columns that don’t elusively cover the Habs?

          “There’s genius everywhere, but until they turn pro, it’s like popcorn in the pan. Some pop… some don’t.”
          – Jerry Maguire

      • commandant says:

        Agreed, I’d trust Portzline… he’s very good.

        Its like the thing came from Stubbs, would you doubt it if Stubbs came up with an article about the Habs and told us he had sources in the Habs organization? I wouldn’t.

        Thats the same level of respect Portzline has, (just in a smaller market).

        Go Habs Go!
        NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
        Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
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  24. HabFanSince72 says:

    Another reason draft picks are worth less than Tom thinks is that they occur in the future. A draft pick next year is a 30% chance of an NHL player 4-5 years from now.

    Which would you rather have: $100 today or $110 dollars on July 19, 2013?

    The delay in the ability to ice that future draft pick also discounts its value.

    Remember Nashville traded its late round #1 pick for the right to rent Paul Gaustad.

    That is what 4 future late first round picks are worth.


    Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better.

    • TomNickle says:

      40 goal scorers earning $875,000 against your cap are more valuable than 40 goal scorers earning $7,500,000 against your cap.

      • HabFanSince72 says:

        Tom – a late round draft pick is not a 40 goal scorer earning $875,000.

        This is like saying that the value of a lottery ticket is the value of the jackpot.


        Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better.

        • TomNickle says:

          Jamie Benn who was brought up earlier was a late round pick, 5th I believe. Weber himself was a 2nd. Giroux a late round first.

          Franchise players are found all over the draft

          You can have your star. I’ll take the four first rounders and coupled with my original four I’ll find more than one star. And that’s the mentality of a great number of general managers.

          • HabFanSince72 says:

            Tom – I’ll sell you 4 lottery tickets for a million dollars.

            Each one of them is in the running for a $10M jackpot.


            Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better.

          • TomNickle says:

            Even at a terribly incorrect figure like 35%, that’s a far cry from a lottery ticket.

            First of all, a team(not the Flyers specifically because their inclusion wasn’t part of my argument) making the playoffs for four consecutive years has a probability of less than 33%. Second, the exchange leaves you with two first round picks each season over the next four drafts and finally we can agree that franchise players are found all over the draft and more specifically you have a better chance in drafting in the first round.

            That is no way a lottery. Why don’t we just break down the percentage of likelihood that Weber would want to be a part of your team for the next fourteen years?

        • ed lopaz says:

          there is a huge risk associated with the picks.

          Weber is worth MORE than 4 1st round picks. MUCH MORE!

          Weber is worth at least the following:

          a top 6 forward under 25 years old
          a top 4 d-man under 25 years old
          2 first round draft picks.

          this cuts the risk considerably., essentially, in half.
          you get 2 impact players immediately that will help your team next season, plus you get 2 first round picks.

          • TomNickle says:

            Think of it this way Ed. You’ve hand picked all of your amateur scouts and do a great amount of scouting yourself.

            A team offers you four first round picks for your best defenseman. Now consider that you would have 8 first round picks in the next four years and would be off of the hook for $7,500,000 in salary for the next decade and a half.

            What do you do?

          • HabFanSince72 says:

            Tom sorry if this sounds harsh but your understanding of probability is almost as bad as the Eye on the Prize folks’.


            Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better.

          • TomNickle says:

            No offense taken. If you’re going to take shots at my ability to determine probability I would appreciate you using something with merit other than the post of somebody who forgot a great number of players in determining your hit percentage(no offense to Jordio)

    • TomNickle says:

      The irony in this entire discussion is that Shea Weber was a 2nd round pick.

      • Chris says:

        That was not lost on me. And if you look at other recent offer sheets, only Steve Bernier (16th overall), Thomas Vanek (5th overall) and Ryan Kesler (23rd overall) were first round picks.

        Dustin Penner was undrafted. David Backes was drafted 62nd overall. Niklas Hjalmarsson was drafted 104th overall.

  25. Cardiac says:

    This is a follow up to Tom’s post about how he would take four 1st round picks for any player.

    I suppose I would too, given the right team. In the case of the Flyers, here are their draft positions based on where they finished in the standing:

    2012 – 20 (Scott Laughton)
    2011 – 25 (Stuart Percy)
    2010 – 29 (Emerson Etem)
    2009 – 21 (John Moore)
    2008 – 27 (John Carlson)

    Obviously, the odds of finding a franchise player with picks in the 20-30 range is much lower than the 1-10 range. In 2007, the Flyers had the second overall pick (JVR), so even drafting as high as second overall does not guarantee you a franchise player.

    Now you take a team like Tampa Bay with it’s ups and downs. After drafting Stamkos and Hedman, say that make an offer to whoever and sacrifice their next four picks:

    2013 – ???
    2012 – 10 (Slater Koekkoek)
    2011 – 27 (Vladislav Namestnikov)
    2010 – 6 (Brett Connolly)

    Connolly is a big winger with a good offensive game and Slater Koekkoek is projected to be a decent defenseman. And we don’t know where that leaves the 2013 pick.

    My point is I would expect Nashville’s picks in the next four years to benefit them more than the picks they would get from the Flyers.

    “There’s genius everywhere, but until they turn pro, it’s like popcorn in the pan. Some pop… some don’t.”
    – Jerry Maguire

  26. TomNickle says:

    I’d like to clarify on the conversation below. You can easily say it’s foolish to accept four first round picks from the Flyers for an elite player. But what if it’s Edmonton offering them? Or Toronto? Or Minnesota?

    Anybody here think Scott Howson was stupid to refuse the Islanders’ entire draft for the #2 pick? Different situations I know but these are big hauls we’re talking about.

    Keep in mind that with every draft pick you’re getting 7 years of service and manageable cap hits and salaries.

    It shouldn’t be forgotten that if Nashville decides not to match that the Flyers not only have to honour a large bounty of picks but a huge amount of salary to Weber when they could’ve waited until next off-season and given away no picks.

    Some have argued that the Flyers would be competing against 29 teams for his services next off-season. I’m sure they competed against a few in this bidding. Weber after all does decided to sign the offer sheet. It’s quite possible he turned a few down.

    • Cardiac says:

      “You can easily say it’s foolish to accept four first round picks from the Flyers for an elite player. But what if it’s Edmonton offering them? Or Toronto? Or Minnesota?”

      See my post above. I clearly agree with this statement.

      “There’s genius everywhere, but until they turn pro, it’s like popcorn in the pan. Some pop… some don’t.”
      – Jerry Maguire

      • commandant says:

        Obviously the team offering the picks should have a huge effect on the decision to match or not.

        I don’t know many people who would argue against this premise.

        Go Habs Go!
        NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
        Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
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    • HabFanSince72 says:

      The Isles offer is completely different because they also had the #4 pick.

      The offer was swap #2 for #4 plus get all those other picks.

      “Keep in mind that with every draft pick you’re getting 7 years of service”

      No you’re not. You’re getting a 35% probability of that.


      Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better.

    • New says:

      Oh it’s not foolish but it is an unknown (four firsts) for a known. All things being equal and with luck Shea plays 14 more years. Without luck he is injured, or his skills diminish because of an injury, but there is a good chance he stays Shea Weber until age 34 or so.

      But that’s not the case for most NHL players. Only about 8% of NHL players make it into a fourth season (http://www.quanthockey.com/Distributions/CareerLengthGP.php )

      You have a better chance of sticking as a first round pick. The odds say that. But Shea himself was a late second round pick.

      In this case the Flyer’s plan seems to replace their stud D-man Pronger. With Pronger they were tough to beat. With Weber they will be tough to beat. If they can’t have him then they want to ensure Nashville has to keep him in the West for at least a year.

      • TomNickle says:

        I haven’t been referring to the Weber case. I’m speaking in general terms, I don’t think there’s an NHL player for whom I’d refuse four first round picks, depending on the offering team of course.

        • New says:

          I understand but Weber is the example that prompted the discussion so we are up to date on it.

          Most NHL players who can be “difference makers” are locked up early. I do think Shea Weber falls into that definition. So Nashville was lax in not settling this back in January by my beer-induced thinking.

          The odds are that four first’s won’t do you as much good as a “difference maker” would. Likewise the odds are that four firsts for a non-difference maker (Carter or Richards for example) would be an excellent opportunity. That is also why it never comes along.

          • TomNickle says:

            I don’t agree with the last part. With 8 first round picks you better be able to make more than one difference maker out of it.

    • Chris says:

      I understand your point, but I feel it necessary to point out that you’re not getting 7 years of service and manageable cap hits and salaries. If that was the case, we would not be having this discussion regarding Shea Weber in the first place! :)

      The increased threat of offer sheets has caused teams to throw those manageable cap hits out the window. Carey Price still had two years until unrestricted free agency but just landed a contract that gives him the third biggest cap hit of any goalie in the NHL.

      Shea Weber and the Predators went to arbitration last season to prevent an RFA offer sheet, and the Predators ended up having to pay Weber the highest cap hit amongst NHL defencemen last season.

      • TomNickle says:

        Fair enough. I’m still taking my chances with the draft picks though. It is cheaper in the long run and stands a pretty damn good chance of being highly productive.

    • jmsheehy19 says:

      “You can easily say it’s foolish to accept four first round picks from the Flyers for an elite player. But what if it’s Edmonton offering them? Or Toronto? Or Minnesota?”

      If it’s Toronto or Edmonton? Then you take the deal and run, as those are likely top 15 picks the next 4 years.

      But barring a catastrophe, Philly’s will be in the the 20-30 range (Minnesota likely in the 15-25 range)

      Weren’t you one the posters, in the discussion leading up to the draft, proclaiming (correctly in my opinion) that a top 5 pick is far more valuable that two mid to late 1sts?

      • TomNickle says:

        I believe that a top 5 pick if more valuable than two late first round picks. But this discussion isn’t exclusive to the Flyers and I never intended it to be such when I said that I would take the four picks over Weber or even Crosby.

        If I give my scouting department 8 first round picks in four years. I better have Cups(plural) out of it within a decade and I would expect to.

        • jmsheehy19 says:

          My bad, I assumed we were building on the Weber discussion of the moment.

          But on the topic of 4 picks for any player, I would still say it depends on the player and the team offering. For a Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, Weber, etc. I don’t think I would take the picks unless it was a team like EDM 4 years ago or CLB now (assuming of course the player in question isn’t demanding a trade or any other extenuating circumstances).

          I would need as close to a guarantee as possible that I would get back at least 1 top 5 pick and 2 top ten picks.

  27. PrimeTime says:

    @Commandant
    The water is a little cool today for a swim so just sunning here at the beach checking in on the Hab Bits. So right, glad to have nothing better to do!! :)

  28. commandant says:

    Interesting note: The Habs have never been involved in an offer sheet (on either side of the equation).

    Go Habs Go!
    NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
    Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
    http://lastwordonsports.com/

    • TomNickle says:

      Getting involved in offer sheets is a quick way to damage relationships for future negotiations.

      It played a big part in why Kevin Lowe is no longer a GM. Though the list of reasons for not having him as a GM should be pretty long.

      • mksness says:

        I’ll say that is somewhat of a bullshit thing. i mean this is a legal thing to do. offer sheets are part of the game and gm will make trades with you if you give them the best return.

        • TomNickle says:

          General Managers work for owners who try to keep salaries low. In the case of Kevin Lowe, he was told by Darcy Regier that any offer sheet would be matched.

          Offer sheets are a tool and should be used(like Varlamov for example) but some GMs are just plain stupid when doing them.

  29. twilighthours says:

    Stand by, gotta pick up my daughter.

  30. Jordio-oh says:

    Food for thought:

    Below I’ve compiled a list of the first round picks that went from #20-30, starting in 2004 so as to not pad the list with the epic draft class of 2003.

    2004: Travis Zajac, Andrej Mezaros, Mike Green, Corey Schnieder

    2005: Tukka Rask, TJ Oshie, Andrew Cogliano, Matt Niskanen, Steve Downie

    2006: Claude Giroux, Semyon Varlamov, Patrick Berglung, Nick Foligno

    2007: Max Pacioretty, David Perron,

    2008: Michael Del Zotto, Jordan Eberle, Tyler Ennis, John Carlson

    Not a spectacular list. But two first rounders for the next 4 drafts is gotta be a nice way to sell a rebuild to the fans.

    • TomNickle says:

      Exactly. And then consider that if you have so much as one pick in the top 15 of any given draft that there’s a damn good chance that you’ll be able to put together a package to get yourself into the top 5.

      • Habilis says:

        I’m not so sure about that. I agree that it’s possible to move up in the draft but I don’t see any team giving up the chance to draft a sure thing. What I mean by that is when there are players like Crosby or Stamkos available you simply don’t see those picks moved. Weber is in that category of player imo. Can you see anybody giving up the chance to draft McKinnon or Jones next year? Of course you will probably get 8 excellent players with all the picks and if they are looking at a rebuild then it’s a no-brainer, but I still think that Weber for 14 years is worth more than 4 picks. Players like him just don’t come around very often.

        • TomNickle says:

          There have been quite a few drafts where teams have traded top 10, 5 or 3 picks.

          #1 overall isn’t very common though.

          • Habilis says:

            True enough. I guess for me it’s more about the quality of the player in this case. I think that Weber is the best defenceman in the NHL right now and if I’m Poile I have a tough time letting him go for 4 (probable) late 1st round picks. If it was a team like Toronto making the offer though, then it would be a different story. Then again Philly could very well have a terrible season in one or two of those 4 years also.

            I’m not suprised that Poile is going to take his time with this. Assuming that the front-loaded nature of the contract isn’t a problem for them, it’s a pretty tough choice.

    • twilighthours says:

      Going to 2008, that’s 55 picks at positions 20-30. And you listed 19 players (presumably because they’re at least decent players). So you’re looking at a 35% chance of getting a decent player, but only one you’d even begin to consider putting in the same class as Weber or Stamkos (Giroux). And then there’s the ~60% chance of getting nothing good at all?

      I don’t know… I’d take the player over the picks.

  31. TomNickle says:

    Of the four teams that made the conference finals this past post-season. All four have had top 10 picks in the draft in the last four years.

    • shiram says:

      Go Habs in four years go!

    • twilighthours says:

      And 8 teams have made the playoffs at least 4 years in a row. Nothing higher than a 15th pick.

      The Flyers are good and getting better.

      • TomNickle says:

        And they’re one injury away from missing the playoffs. In fact, I’d be willing to bet that the Red Wings will miss the playoffs this year. Unless of course they find a replacement for Lidstrom that’s somewhere close to adequate.

        Less than a third of the league’s teams making the playoffs for four consecutive years is a fact that supports taking the picks, not a fact to argue against it in my opinion.

        • twilighthours says:

          Quite the opposite. It seems you think making or missing the playoffs is some sort of coin flip. There’s a reason why the Red Wings have made it 21 years in a row. Or the Flyers 5. They have a recent history of being good and doing what it takes to stay good. What’s going to change? One injury? The Flyers are too deep for one injury to derail them (heck,they had their one injury – Pronger – and it didn’t slow them down much).

          • TomNickle says:

            If 8 of 30 teams have made the playoffs for four years in a row, 22 haven’t. 22 teams have had a pick in at least one draft that was no lower than #15 in the last four years.

            18 teams have had a top 10 pick.

            What happens to the Flyers without Bryzgalov as funny as that sounds?

            I’d argue the Habs would have been a playoff team last season if Gionta had played the entire season. I may be wrong, but the chances certainly would have been better.

  32. Max_a_million says:

    The catch is the one calender year. The Preds get locked in, and can’t trade him for one calender year. Homgren was ingenious enough to make sure that Weber gets $27 million in that one calender year. One quarter of his salary comes this year!

    This guy is worth four late round pics, and it would take a lot for Philly to not be in the top 10 teams the next 4 years. This is a sure thing massive, norris trophy level defenceman. Yikes!

    I wish we could have a GM with brass cohones liek Holmgren. Holmgren has also made sure that no other team other than Nashville, or Philly can have him trumping his rivals.

    • twilighthours says:

      Such a kick in the groin. If the NHL is truly about revenue sharing seeing these smaller teams thrive, it can’t allow a contract with 27million dollars front-loaded into it. No way Nashville can (or should have to) shoulder that if the NHL truly wants it to succeed.

    • Cal says:

      The NHL must void that piece of paper filled with loop holes and designed to screw over a small market club. They should wad it up and shove it up Holmgren’s… butt.

    • habs_moleman says:

      Of course the biggest thing in Holmgren’s favour is the massive amount of young, talented NHL prospects that are leading their team. They have picks to give away, their forward core is set and all that they are really missing is a franchise defenceman (a case can be made that they also need a goaltender but that’s a whole other story).

      What I’m trying to say is that it’s easy to be trading from a position of power, with a lot of great assets and top notch quality in your system, and have the balls to pull off a move like this one. Montreal simply doesn’t have that yet and our GM needs time to build a strong core of talent from within before he can pull off blockbuster moves.

      I’d give Marc Bergevin some time for him to show his true colours. Holmgren has been at his position for 5 years now, not including an additional 9 years as Assistant GM, and has been successful in building a competitive team (as much as I hate to say it), so I’d give MB the time to get a feel for his new position before expecting him to kill it in trades and signings.

  33. PrimeTime says:

    Good one Tom!! I see you put as much thought behind your cracks as you do you’re “opinion and speculation”. Opinions are great……speculation is for people with nothing better to do!!!

  34. twilighthours says:

    I think the NBA has gotten it figured out better on this whole offer sheet/RFA stuff. This has totally handcuffed the Preds. Their options are 1) let him walk and get 4 first rounders 1b) take the 4 first rounders and try to deal them back 2) sign him and keep him for 1 year at least. I like that the NBA has the whole sign-and-trade thing figured out.

    • PG_doesnt_stand_for_Pierre_Gauthier says:

      The NBA is way worst!

      The sign and trade is only for UFA, see Lebron James to Miami and Steve Nash to LA

      RFA offer sheets don’t have any compensation whatsoever!

      Look at the whole Jeremy Lin thing, he was poached from the Knicks by the Rockets for nothing cause the contract was backloaded so the Knick would be over the cap in three years…

      Markov to Subban, he scores!

      • twilighthours says:

        Ah, you’re right. That’s what I was thinking of…. well, it’d be cool if the NHL and the NBA got this thing figured out.

      • commandant says:

        Its much more strategic in the NBA.

        I’m fine with the Lin thing.

        It isn’t always big markets poaching small markets.

        The Knicks screwed up their own cap and they got screwed because of their own mistakes. They are as big market as it gets and one of the richest teams in the NBA.

        Go Habs Go!
        NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
        Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
        http://lastwordonsports.com/

    • TomNickle says:

      I have very little sympathy for the Predators. If ownership isn’t prepared to pay for star players they shouldn’t own professional sports teams.

      If the NHL becomes better with contraction, so be it. That’s a different discussion and will not happen but Ed Snider’s ability to scratch a big cheque doesn’t excuse the Predators of their responsibility to their market.

      • twilighthours says:

        That’s a valid point.

        I think the word “restricted” in RFA should carry a little more clout.

        • TomNickle says:

          I agree with that sentiment. Restricted should mean implicitly exclusive negotiating rights. Having said that, many professional sports have been close to eliminating their drafts due to laws that can be interpreted in ways that make the draft seem discriminatory in nature.

          • twilighthours says:

            Zuh? Examples, please.

          • TomNickle says:

            NFL, NBA.

          • twilighthours says:

            more detail, please.

          • TomNickle says:

            Both player associations have argued during recent collective bargaining that drafts are a violation of Federal Labour Law.

          • commandant says:

            Anti-trust laws and labour laws can be used to say that the drafts unfairly preclude a person from finding work throughout his entire career.

            This is why the NHL allows the loophole that was justin schultz. Without it, the draft is challengeable in US courts.

            You can’t hold someone’s rights and force them to only belong to one team indefinitely.

            Go Habs Go!
            NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
            Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
            http://lastwordonsports.com/

          • twilighthours says:

            Got it.

  35. mark-ID says:

    Fantasy time: Purely for fun

    Would you trade PK Subban for Jamie Benn?

    Both are the same age…..Benn coming off a 26 goals 37 assists season. Has had more then 20 goals in his first 3 seasons.

    As far as I know Jamie Benn is still a RFA…hell maybe we should get in on some of this offer sheet action.

    “I think I may have found a way for us to get Griffey and Bonds, and we really won’t have to give up much” -Costanza

    • TomNickle says:

      No. In my opinion wingers aren’t core players with rare exceptions. I consider a healthy Backstrom to be more valuable to the Capitals than a healthy Ovechkin.

      • mark-ID says:

        what would you think about sending an offer sheet over his way?……of course assuming we cleared up money by sending down Gomer and locking up PK

        “I think I may have found a way for us to get Griffey and Bonds, and we really won’t have to give up much” -Costanza

      • commandant says:

        Benn is a Centre.

        Go Habs Go!
        NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
        Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
        http://lastwordonsports.com/

        • TomNickle says:

          For what? 100 games?

          • commandant says:

            Was a centre in junior, came up as a winger, and now is being converted back to centre.

            Was most successful (point wise) as a centre, where his PPG average is much better than his time as a wing.

            Same thing as Claude Giroux did (though not drafted as high and will always be a step below Giroux), but the guy is a natural centre.

            Go Habs Go!
            NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
            Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
            http://lastwordonsports.com/

  36. PG_doesnt_stand_for_Pierre_Gauthier says:

    Best case scenario:

    Weber goes to Philly, there’s a work stoppage all year long and Philly wins the Draft Lottery with Nashville second

    Markov to Subban, he scores!

  37. PrimeTime says:

    This site is so awesome. Not only do the “Hab Bits” know what is best for their team, they know what is best for Nashville and the Flyers. Who needs the NHL when fantasy can replace the real deal???

    • TomNickle says:

      This place is for opinion and speculation. The Muppet show balcony is for PrimeTime.

    • New says:

      They know Halak can not be replaced
      They know Huet can not be replaced,
      They know Theodore can not be replaced.
      They know Gauthier knows nothing.
      They know Gainey knows nothing.
      They suspect Bergevin knows nothing.
      Unfortunately Halak, Huet, and Theodore were all replaced.
      Unfortunately Gauthier, Gainey, and Bergevin are all currently paid for what they apparently don’t know.
      That is the fun of it. The players and management are always so calm and decent when they speak to the fans together, or individually. This is the flip side. And it’s fun.

  38. gerrybell says:

    Nashville had better match or they are about to become an AHL franchise.

    if weber does leave, capgeek list the preds as the lowest cap team in the league. perhaps a player like scott gomez [salary of 5.5 million with a cap hit of 7.5 mill] could get them up to the floor.

    i cant believe scott gomez is still a hab. i hope this CBA gets figured out soon so we can buy that guy out or send him to hamilton.

    g
    b

  39. TomNickle says:

    I don’t think there’s a player in the NHL that I wouldn’t take 4 first round picks for.

    • commandant says:

      Really?

      you’d rather have 4 late first round picks than Evgeni Malkin, Steven Stamkos, or any other superstar?

      I’d take the star.

      Quantity does not equal quality, Philly will be a good team and the picks will average about 20th overall.

      2007-2010 Habs Natural picks….

      Would you trade Ryan McDonagh, Louis Leblanc, Greg Nemisz and Mark Visentin for Stamkos? I would, in a second.

      Go Habs Go!
      NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
      Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
      http://lastwordonsports.com/

      • TomNickle says:

        Yes I would rather have the picks. For a few reasons. Having multiple first round picks offers flexibility at the draft. Picks can be flipped into higher picks, can be flipped for different players and the draftees come at a much better cost than a superstar. You also get seven years of exclusive rights with the draft picks. In addition to those reasons, there are no guarantees that the team you acquired the picks from or you for that matter won’t have a bad season and acquire a high pick naturally. In the last four drafts 18 teams have held top 10 picks. If the teams involved aren’t perennial contenders, there’s a strong likelihood that at least a couple of those 8 picks are going to be top 10.

        Give a competent scouting department 8 first round picks in four years and they’ll build you a dynasty.

      • twilighthours says:

        A guy like Stammer is probably worth 6-8 late first round picks. None of those players will be as good as him and some won’t even make the NHL.

        • TomNickle says:

          They aren’t guaranteed to be late first round picks.

          • twilighthours says:

            Well it’s hard to imagine the Flyers missing the playoffs in the forseeable future so we are talking about mid to late picks.

            To me, it’s a easy-peasy. Stamkos is worth at least 4 mid/late 1st rounders.

          • TomNickle says:

            I think of it this way. If my mandate was to win the Stanley Cup sometime within the next ten years and I could choose four extra first round picks or Steven Stamkos, I’m taking the picks.

            I break my back to turn those picks into two or three Stamkos’. Like the Penguins.

          • Luke says:

            they aren’t guaranteed to be high either.

          • TomNickle says:

            No but the law of averages suggests that half of those picks will be in the top 15 at least. And that’s forgetting that you control your own destiny with your picks.

          • twilighthours says:

            The law of averages is for random, independent events. I don’t think Philly missing the playoffs can described as such. Since playoff teams are guaranteed a pick no higher than 15th, I think we’re talking about 4 mid-to-late first rounders with this compensation. Yes, I think Philly will make the playoffs for the next four years.

      • Ozmodiar says:

        It’s easy to make that call in retrospect. Let’s change things up a bit.

        Let’s go with the 4 1st rounders actually picked by the Habs, starting in ’07.
        MaxPac, McDo, Leblanc, Tinordi.

        And let’s change Stamkos to the scoring leaders at the time. So, Thornton, Heatley, St. Louis, Lecavalier, Crosby.

        The only player you’d still make that trade for would be Crosby.

        • TomNickle says:

          I still would make the deal for Crosby going the other way. I’d take that package for Gretzky, but that’s just me. And by that I mean that it’s really very likely JUST ME.

        • commandant says:

          Because the way offer sheets work, you give the NATURAL picks not Pacioretty or Tinordi who were traded for.

          Go Habs Go!
          NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
          Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
          http://lastwordonsports.com/

          • Ozmodiar says:

            Yes, but it doesn’t matter. :)

            They were still 1st round picks. The point is that the quality of a package of 4 1st round picks can vary, and be quite a bit better than your package that included Nemisz and Visentin.

            There’s randomness to it. My list includes 2 players that were not NATURAL picks. Your list includes 2 players that weren’t picked by Montreal.

            When you make that kind of deal, you don’t know how it will turn out.

    • JUST ME says:

      It`s not as if the Preds will get top picks though because the Flyers do quite well and end up drafting 25 th or so every season.
      For any team it would be worth the risk or at least the thought but for the Preds they are playing big if this guy goes.

    • Thomas Le Fan says:

      With perhaps a few exceptions, I think that’s about right. You might have to tank a little to take full advantage, however.

  40. Bouleau noir says:

    Weber has already consent to playing for Philly, Predators could match but the romantic era in Nashville will be gone anyway…. specially that Suter is gone too.

    I wonder if the Preds could have better managed their destiny…. in the end it seems all they might get in return of loosing the stars-duo will be 4 late first round picks collected over a 4 years span…… and some additional salary cap space to be shure but still…. ouch!.

    • TomNickle says:

      After hearing and reading what Poile had to say after Suter signed in Minnesota, it seemed to me that he was genuinely surprised and jilted about Suter making that decision.

      I think he was given the impression that money was the deciding factor and that he would be given every opportunity to match what everyone else was offering.

      On Weber, as I said below, I don’t think there’s a player in the NHL that I wouldn’t trade for four consecutive first round picks.

    • habstrinifan says:

      Great Point!

    • commandant says:

      Was the Romantic era for Joe Sakic and the Avalanche over when he signed an offer sheet with the Rangers?

      Go Habs Go!
      NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
      Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
      http://lastwordonsports.com/

  41. Sean Bonjovi says:

    I’m trying to catch up and there are two things I don’t understand.

    1. Would compensation for Shea Weber be four 1st round picks, or something less? What’s the rule for $110 million/14?

    2. What’s stopping the Predators from trading the option to match this contract, or a signed Shea Weber to any of the other 28 teams in the league?

    • TomNickle says:

      1. It’s 4 first round picks.
      2. I don’t believe teams can trade negotiating rights when a player has signed an offer sheet.

      • habs03 says:

        Ya I don’t believe you can trade his rights, because technically Weber is a Flyer now since he signed that contract, I think his rights get transfer back the Preds if they match. I think that is why I read that if the Flyers gave Weber a NTC/NMC, if the Preds match the offersheet, it would become void.

        • commandant says:

          Hes still a predator until they decide not to match, he does not get transfered to the flyers reserve list for 7 days.

          However once an offer sheet is signed, the Predators cannot trade him for 1 calendar year.

          Go Habs Go!
          NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
          Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
          http://lastwordonsports.com/

      • Sean Bonjovi says:

        thx!

        The 4 first rounders is the catch. When I heard it might be something like 2 1sts, & a 2nd & a 3rd that seemed like a price some other teams would be willing to top, but four 1st rounders is tough to beat.

    • habs03 says:

      1.Cap hit is 7.85 or something, so its 4 1st round picks.
      2: If the Preds match, they can’t trade him for 1 year, and the contract is made so that Webers gets 13M in Salary bonus right now, 1M in salary next year, and another 13M on July 1st 2013, so Preds would have to pay Weber 27M if they match in a year, and even if there is a Lock out, Weber gets the signing bonuses, so that would 26M even if there is a lock out next year.

      No way they would pay him 27M and then trade him.

      • TomNickle says:

        He was asking if they could trade him to somebody else right now to avoid the decision.

        • habs03 says:

          ya I saw that part after posting, but actually he still also asked if they would trade “a signed Shea Weber to any of the other 28 teams in the league”.

      • Sean Bonjovi says:

        So, they can’t trade him if they match? I guess that makes sense, otherwise Weber would have no clue which team he was signing with. One year from now I think Weber will have enough age/service time to have a no-trade clause in his contract, so if they (Nashville) can’t move him now, they can’t screw him over either which is probably a good rule.

        • TomNickle says:

          I believe they can trade him if they match but are on the hook for $12 million regardless. In other words, if they are allowed to trade him there’s no way in hell they do it.

          • Sean Bonjovi says:

            “if they are allowed to trade him there’s no way in hell they do it.”… because it would take an offer that worth at least (the hockey player equivalent) $12 million more than 4 Flyers 1st round picks. I see what youre saying.

  42. boonie says:

    @habstrinifan

    Great point (on the previous page) that the preds could let weber walk, get four firsts and sign PK to an other sheet that costs them two firsts.

    I’ll add they have the cap room and picks to add quality players now to show well nex year. Say, some scoring from Semin (who’s not liked by many, but has put up good numbers), maybe nash for a first and prospect,etc. Rinne is a top flight goalie.

    It may not be a terrible situation – although replacing a 26 year old, two time first team all star is near impossible.

  43. Jan_pronounced_Yan says:

    I posted a comparison of the Vanek offer sheet and the Weber offer sheet on the last page.

    Seriously, how does Regier not get crap for not taking 4 Edmonton first-rounders from 2008 to 2011. Buffalo would have been STACKED if they had done it, and Edmonton would have been a bottom-feeding team WITHOUT any future stars (except for maybe Yakupov).

    • commandant says:

      Does Edmonton finish in the same spot in the standings if they have Vanek instead of Penner?

      Does Vanek help them attract other FAs.

      Do the Oilers see the picks flying out the window and make trades to improve their team?

      In 2010 when Khabibulin gets injured and the Oilers go with two inexperienced goalies the remainder of the season (a clear tank move) still happen?

      These are things we don’t know.

      Go Habs Go!
      NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
      Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
      http://lastwordonsports.com/

      • Jan_pronounced_Yan says:

        I don’t think Vanek would have made them THAT much better. I doubt he would attract other free-agents to Edmonton. That team was on the way down, and Edmonton has ALWAYS had a hard time attracting UFAs.

        Do they finish in the same spots those 4 years with Vanek? Probably not. But I think the 4 1st-rounders still would have been pretty high with a good chance of having at least one top-5 pick. You make that trade in a second for Vanek.

    • TomNickle says:

      The Sabres had just lost Drury and Briere to free agency with nothing in return and were in financial dire straits. They had to keep him to avoid a pr disaster.

      Darcy Regeir was absolutely furious because he told Kevin Lowe well ahead of time that he HAD to match ANY offer sheet that Vanek would potentially sign.

      • Jan_pronounced_Yan says:

        I understand that part. It would have been terrible for their image.

        However, I think most fans in Buffalo could have understood if there was a bti of transparency. Heck, I would do Eberle for Vanek straight up. Imagine the haul they could have gotten. Obviously, it would not have been Eberle, Pajaarvi, Hall and Nugent-Hopkins, because Vanek being in Edmonton would change something, but it likely would have been 4 quality players for a one-dimensional scorer. And I like Vanek. But I would take 4 1st-rounders in a heartbeat for him.

        • TomNickle says:

          I don’t disagree that it’s a bad hockey operations decision and it was at the time, but sometimes business decisions come first. Like in Nashville right now, they’ll probably match the offer.

          • commandant says:

            Eberle was one of the Pronger trade picks, not a natural edmonton selection.

            Go Habs Go!
            NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
            Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
            http://lastwordonsports.com/

          • TomNickle says:

            Refusing four first round picks for Tomas Vanek is, was and always will be a terrible hockey operations decision.

            And you corrected the wrong person Ben. ;)

  44. Thanks Ian Cobb for linking the editorial.

    Here is a link to the entire story.

    http://peicanada.com/west_prince_graphic/publication/local_soldier_tells_truth_about_living_depression

    This story is pretty much why I don’t take hockey as serious as some do here. No need to get worked up over something none of us can control.

    I play to win because to lose is more than a game. Read the story to understand.

    The Summit is all about helping the children, I hope we have a big one this year. If the NHL and the players don’t get something done, they’ll lose more than revenue. It’s impossible to hep every single person in need, but it doesn’t hurt to try.

    NHL/NHLPA get it done!

    They Call Me Shane
    “They never asked to be Canadiens, they were Chosen.”
    Shane Oliver
    Twitter @Sholi2000
    http://www.Sholi2000.com
    Custom Sports Figures

    • Habfan10912 says:

      I always admired your post Shane. Now I admire the person behind the post. I have so much respect and admiration for you word will fall well short of properly describing. I so look foward to shaking your hand at the summit. You sir are a brave man. A true hero.

      ———————————–

    • secretdragonfly says:

      Good god, what an incredible story. Looking forward to seeing you again at the Summit, Shane.

    • Cal says:

      I am always glad to read about our real life heroes in the Canadian military who sacrifice more than life and limb so we live free. I am also glad to read that your children are providing the best reason to go on during the difficult times. Keep ‘er going, Shane.

  45. commandant says:

    I’m gonna repost this cause its on the last page and I spent all morning on this… hope you guys like it.

    The History of NHL Offer Sheets

    http://lastwordonsports.com/2012/07/19/the-history-of-nhl-offer-sheets/

    Go Habs Go!
    NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
    Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
    http://lastwordonsports.com/

  46. mark-ID says:

    If Nashville ends up sucking next year….we would end up with a higher 2nd round pick via Nashville….

    but Buffalo could potentially get a top five pick from Nashville since they got their first rounder from the Gaustad trade. Damn…that could have been us for Kostitsyn.

    “I think I may have found a way for us to get Griffey and Bonds, and we really won’t have to give up much” -Costanza

    • TomNickle says:

      Buffalo got a 2012 first rounder from Nasvhille.

      • mark-ID says:

        oh yea of course, my mistake.

        “I think I may have found a way for us to get Griffey and Bonds, and we really won’t have to give up much” -Costanza

    • commandant says:

      Buffalo used the Nashville first rounder this season to trade up and get Zemgus Girgensons.

      The Flames then used the pick to take Mark Jankowski.

      Nashville owns their 2013 first.

      Go Habs Go!
      NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
      Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
      http://lastwordonsports.com/

    • PG_doesnt_stand_for_Pierre_Gauthier says:

      Correction: The Gaustad trade was for this year’s first round pick (2012) not the one in 2013.

      They drafted Grigorenko and Girgensons

      Markov to Subban, he scores!

  47. Ian Cobb says:

    Ian,

    Thanks for sharing.
    When I first met Shane at last year’s Summit, he was a bit shy but then
    we started to talk about hockey ( of course!) and we hit it off well-

    During the evening, we got to talking more about life and we found out, we
    shared a few more common things besides our great love for hockey-
    such as life, our partners and our children. It was really great meeting Shane for the
    first time in person, since I always read his comments about life in general and hockey on
    HIO- and then I finally got to meet him, face to face. Since the Summit, we have been
    in contact via e-mail , just talking…about hockey and life.

    This is why, I think Hockey Summits are important for the fans, we read and comment on the
    site, but then, we all live in different parts of North America, so talking in person can be hard to do-
    But luckily for us, once a year, we can get together, have a few good laughs, share our hockey knowledge ( yes,
    we are all knowledgeable fans in our own unique way) and talk even more hockey and then go see a live game!

    And then talk some more hockey!
    What more can a true hockey fan ask for!

    Only for the home team to win!

    Yours in hockey,

    Linda
    Gatineau, Quebec

    On 7/19/2012 7:19 AM, Ian Cobb wrote:
    > THEY CALL ME SHANE.!
    > Here is a story about one of my hero’s and one of our super HIO members.
    > Shane and I first met on this site a number of years ago and in person when he helped me at the last few Summits in Montreal.
    > He lives in Brandon Man. where he was stationed as a Sargent in our military and is a young injured war hero. He is from P.E.I.
    > He is home in PEI for the summer and a local newspaper just wrote this article about him. Please read it and say hi to him at this years Summit in Oct.
    > He is a great Canadian, my friend and a very passionate Hab’s fan. click below
    > http://peicanada.com/opinion_cindy_chant_editor/columns_opinions/saluting_forgotten_soldier
    >
    >

  48. --Habs-- says:

    So what will it be if Nashville does not counter.
    Nashville could get 4 first round pick here!
    Compensation is determined by dividing total compensation by the less of the number of years of the offer sheet, or five (this discourages long-term offer sheets in some cases).
    $1,034,249 annual cap hit or less: No compensation
    $1,034,249 — $1,567,043: Third-round pick
    $1,567,043 — $3,134,088: Second-round pick
    $3,134,088 — $4,701,131: First and third-round pick
    $4,701,131 — $6,268,175: First, second and third-round pick
    $6,268,175 — $7,835,219: Two first-round picks, a second and third
    $7,835,219 and higher: Four first-round picks

    Go HABS Go

  49. habstrinifan says:

    Notwithstanding the boorishness of one poster’s responses I went back and read the very narrow proprietary requirements surrounding the drafts picks which can be offered as compensation.

    Fehr would do well to challenge the clauses. Excluding ‘acquired picks’ as allowable compensation is ridiculous. How did the players ever agree to that. In fact how did some GM’s not see the suppression of entrepreneurial skill embodied in those restrictions.

    A draft pick which you ‘acquire’ should have the same value as a draft pick for which you ‘sucked’ during the season.

    No wonder significant offer sheets arent made more often and player movement in the NHL is often unenterprising.

    • Andy and the habs says:

      Because a team could get first rounds as many as possible and fail on purpose.

    • commandant says:

      By making it only natural picks…. the team who signs the player has to give up something of value.

      You could trade with the Stanley cup champ every year and subsitute their pick for yours, giving up 4 straight 30th overall picks.

      There is less risk in that, than in giving up natural picks… see what the Leafs had to give up for Kessel (not an offer sheet, discussed on last page though).

      Go Habs Go!
      NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
      Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
      http://lastwordonsports.com/

      • habstrinifan says:

        Thanks. Gotta run now but gotta read more later on to see the merits as you describe them. On the surface it seems to go against the grain of ‘business acumen’. You forego an asset . But the return you get in exchange for those assets you cannot use as you would have identically similar assets acquired through accident, often through positioning that you were trying to avoid.

        Again thanks I will re-read your explanation and give it more thought. It is an intriguing little clause.

    • TomNickle says:

      You didn’t answer my question.

      ;)

      • pmaraw says:

        he probably thought you already knew the answer.

      • habstrinifan says:

        The answer is NO! And I am sure you know that. You simply wanted to elevate yourself by demeaning me, albeit in a subtle way but still intended to give you the glow of righteous punditry.

        I admire and respect your diligence and work in researching facts and information and presenting them here. This response was nothing but petty.

        Anyone who follows my posts knows that I have never recommended a link to any site. I have copied and pasted with proper acknowledgement excerpts from other sites and inserted URLS of sites into my posts when I am commenting on information garnered from those sites.

        In fact I rely on people like you and Commandant and Un Canadien Errant and others who are much more dedicated in fact gathering etc to bring the awareness of other sites to the board.

        Despite my appreciation for your work, I stand by my characterization of your post… it was a low blow.

        It’s not important reallyMy posts are purely mine even if they are half-baked rants.

        Only that I have promised myself that while on HIO to stand up and speak up in certain circumstances. Regretfully I have not always done so. The most recent example being when I said nothing against the poster who thought it was funny to link Lucic’s Mom and an Ape sexually. Bravely Une Canadien Errant, if I recalll correctly, spoke up while I cowardly missed my opportunity to.

        The matter’s closed!

        • TomNickle says:

          I’d like to start by saying that I only read the first paragraph of what you just wrote.

          I would like to add that I carry no ill will toward bloggers in general and that my question wasn’t meant as an insult.

          I’m sorry if you were hurt by my question and remark regarding your desire for entertainment. And for the record, I don’t feel that being a blogger or somebody who craves entertainment are negatives.

          For what it’s worth.

          • pmaraw says:

            did you already know what he wrote? is that why you didnt read it? you basically begged him to write it and then you dont read it?

  50. toinz says:

    Nashville should take the four first round draft picks.

    Unless Philly can convince people to take less money, the Flyers are in for some serious cap trouble after next season with Simmonds and Hartnell to sign.

    After 2 years, its Giroux, Couturier, Schenn (Brayden) and Matt Read.

    If heaven forbid, a work stoppage reduces future salary caps, what are the Flyers gonna do?

    The pick might suck next year, but if Nashville uses the time to tank™ and Philly runs into a couple of issues, they can come out a lot stronger down the road.

    Seth Jones > Shea Weber

    • TomNickle says:

      If they don’t win the division and get bounced in the first round the pick is in the range of #17-#25.

      Not exactly a bad spot, and with Bryzgalov in net, I consider that pick range to be a likelihood.

      I would probably take the picks too. Two first round picks for the next four years is something pretty special. I don’t even think I’d negotiate a trade at this point if I were Poile. I’d just take the picks.

      • toinz says:

        In a division with Sidney Crosby and the Rangers, there is no guarantee even with Weber that the Flyers win the division.

        I also wonder how Nashville is gonna spend 14 million to get to the cap floor! They can legitimately argue that other teams caused this to happen.

        Would Bettman grant them a reprieve? Are the Kostitsyn brothers getting 1 year 5 million dollar deals? Way to go Holmgren! Your idiocy has made the summer a lot better for hockey fans.

        • TomNickle says:

          How is Holmgren an idiot?

          • toinz says:

            Last year, he signed an unproven goalie to contend now, then traded 2 of his best players for 2 prospects and 2 2/3 line wingers.

            The other two are cup champions. Maybe they should send Holmgren a ring.

          • boing007 says:

            They should send Holmgren a photo of their rings.

            Richard R
            Price is an oyster. Unfortunately not all oysters produce pearls.

    • Kfourn says:

      Or as someone on here suggested, come to terms with a trade that gives more immediate results. While I was surprised at the fan support for the Predators I very much doubt that they will be patient enough to see 3/4 years of sucking before their prospects develop

      _______________________________________________________
      Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

      “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

    • habs03 says:

      Offersheet was signed, Nashville either matches or takes the picks, can’t change the contract.

      In regards to their cap, its not THAT bad, they have about 12-13 probably coming off the books next year, with Timonen contract expiring, and starting next year Briere salary is only 2M with a cap hit of 6.8M (Hello Mr Wang & Snow, Islanders love these contracts).

      • TomNickle says:

        They’ll only be able to get away with Pronger on LTIR for so long. They pulled a similar trick with Derian Hatcher and the league stepped in. They’ll have to let a lot of good players walk or make some more trades to make this work long term.

        • HabinBurlington says:

          I can’t remember the details pertaining to Hatcher. What did the League make them do? I recall the injuries etc.. but not what the league did about it.

          • TomNickle says:

            If I remember correctly they hired an independent doctor to do an evaluation on Hatcher.

            I believe the league claimed Hatcher could resume playing the season following the injury.

        • habs03 says:

          Ya that pisses me off, they were stupid enough to sign him to that 35+ contract, they should pay for it. I think Pronger is just going to make it seem like he is trying to make a comeback, but I think everyone knows, that sadly he is done. I REALLY REALLY hope he comes back and plays, because there is no way Pronger is playing those last 2 years of that contract for 500K a year at 39 and 40.

        • commandant says:

          Pronger is a severe concussion. You’ll never find a doctor who can say he can play without being at future risk to his long term health.

          Even if the doctors say the symptoms are cleared, there is still the whole increased risk of recurring concussions to deal with.

          Go Habs Go!
          NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
          Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
          http://lastwordonsports.com/

          • TomNickle says:

            Risk to long term health and ability to play are two different things. Sidney Crosby sees similar risk.

            It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the league have an independent neurologist evaluate Pronger if they plan to keep him on LTIR this coming season.

      • HabinBurlington says:

        True but Briere has a NMC and I believe a NTC, he may not accept a team like the Islanders. But I think Philly could wiggle their way out somehow.

    • HabinBurlington says:

      I understand the sentiment of how good long term 4 number 1 picks are, but Nashville has had momentum going the past few seasons. By essentially replacing Suter and Weber with future picks does nothing to help the team now. The owner of the Preds needs ticket sales to continue going up and not down. If all of a sudden this Predators team starts losing along with having lost its major identity players Weber, Suter and Tootoo (who was a huge crowd favourite) they could start losing at the gate.

      I am not sure the Preds can afford the time it takes to have these picks pay off.

      • Kfourn says:

        You explained it better than I did haha

        _______________________________________________________
        Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

        “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

      • Chris says:

        Yes, but Weber on his own without Suter is not going to get them anywhere anyways.

        Nashville rolled the dice on winning this season by not dealing Suter at the deadline and bringing in Kostitsyn, Gaustad and Radulov. It didn’t work and now they have lost their own 1st and 2nd round picks plus Suter, Kostitsyn and Radulov.

        With or without Weber, the Predators are rebuilding. Rebuilding with two first round picks per year for the next four years makes the job a lot easier.

    • habstrinifan says:

      I agree.. take the picks.

    • Ozmodiar says:

      “stronger down the road” won’t go over well in Nashville.

      They’ll match or make a trade.

    • habstrinifan says:

      I agree Nashville should take the picks. Which is why I posted my dismay at the restrictive clauses re the draft picks.

      A team in a market like Nashville, with 4 1st rnd picks in hand plus all their other picks and an entrepreneurially minded GM can go to his owners and fans with a very aggressive plan to rebuild the team much sooner. But the clause which prohibits him from ‘considering those picks as his’ kills that idea. It is a silly clause.

      You have a draft pick but you cannot use it to improve your team because you didnt ‘stink’ to get it.

  51. Was just watching a condensed version of the Montreal game in Winnipeg for the Jets’ home-opener and one of the play-by-play guys on CBC said, “I’d take Cammalleri over three Pacioretty’s any day.” Ha. Wrong.

  52. otter649 says:

    Ironically Preds GM David Poile was the GM of Washington when Scott Stevens
    left the Capitals to go to St Louis & Washington ended up receiving 5 number 1
    draft picks – Trevor Halverson-Sergei Gonchor-Brendan Witt-Nolan Baumgartner
    & Miika Elomo when The Caps did not match the contract St Louis was offering
    Stevens at the time……

    • Kfourn says:

      He also said that he would never make that mistake again… I guess he doesn’t really have a choice.

      _______________________________________________________
      Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

      “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

    • neumann103 says:

      which begs the question:”would you make that trade?” Scott Stevens at that age for what those guys eventually became.

      I would not.

      There are certainly moves you can make to give up elite players for more or more affordable players but it shows draft picks are not magic.

      “Et le but!”

  53. TomNickle says:

    Aaron Portzline reports that General Managers feel the Predators and Flyers will make a trade.

    Poile will threaten to match the offer if the Flyers aren’t willing to offer up a better package than previously discussed or mandated from offer sheet rules.

    • habstrinifan says:

      Awwww no fun! This is way more fun.

    • commandant says:

      The Preds will trade the four first rounders back to Philly

      I don’t know what Philly can give up that fills Nashville’s massive hole on defence without Suter and Weber.

      I think they are gonna find a way to match. They were prepared to heavily front load on Suter’s contract.

      Go Habs Go!
      NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
      Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
      http://lastwordonsports.com/

      • HabinBurlington says:

        If they trade have to believe Luke Schenn goes to Nashville, as they will need a Defenceman. Perhaps Nashville ends up with Voracek.

        • TomNickle says:

          I think it’s more likely that Kimo Timonen or Andrej Meszaros goes.

          • commandant says:

            Timonen is so old, does it make sense.

            And Meszaros is just not a number 1 dman.

            If Nashville lets him go, our pick is gonna be high next year. Now way to replace those two.

            Go Habs Go!
            NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
            Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
            http://lastwordonsports.com/

          • Ozmodiar says:

            Timonen’s gonna waive his NMC to go to Nashville??

            whaaaaa?

          • TomNickle says:

            I didn’t say those player were likely to go to Nashville(Timonen actually is in my opinion though), but that it’s more likely than Schenn.

          • Ozmodiar says:

            Timonen won’t go there (NMC).

            Nashville wouldn’t want him (old, expensive, hurt, UFA in a year).

          • TomNickle says:

            We’re talking about a package here. Why wouldn’t Timonen want to go to Nashville again?

            He started his career there. I don’t pretend to know if Timonen would waive his no movement clause but if he were willing I don’t see any reason why Nashville wouldn’t take him back. Keep in mind that they will have to hit the cap floor with Weber gone if he chooses to leave and they can’t get there with draft picks.

            I don’t see how the Flyers part with Schenn weeks after acquiring him but stranger things have happened I suppose.

    • Cardiac says:

      The move is definitely feasible considering the relationship between Poile and Holmgren .

      “There’s genius everywhere, but until they turn pro, it’s like popcorn in the pan. Some pop… some don’t.”
      – Jerry Maguire

    • ProHabs says:

      Luke Schenn, Vorocek and a 1st rounder for Weber.

  54. savethepuck says:

    With the CBA negotiations, I hope the players at least accept the owners proposal that all future contracts are to have equal yearly salaries for the length of the contract with no signing bonuses. These contracts are a freaking joke. I am sure the two sides will come to a compromise between the 57% and 46%, 5 year entry level instead of 3, 10 year UFA instead of 7, and maximum 5 year contract may be negotiated to 6 or 7. These contracts give an unfair advantage to large market teams with lots of money, but limited cap space. They have to go.

    “They don’t hang Conference Championship Banners from the rafters here”
    Carey Price

  55. habstrinifan says:

    So 7 days from now Nashville foregoes and Weber becomes a Flyer.
    Nashville now has some cap room tons of drat picks and a motivation to wheel and deal to continue to retain a) this spotlight b) fans interest c)optimism for next year.

    What do they do. If were I. Well I would make and offer sheet to P.K Subban for just under the cap hit where you only lose max 2 picks.

    Not comparing P.K to Weber. Just looking at the big picture from Nashville’s viewpoint.

    They get a very high profile defenceman with an (considering the sport) intriguingly ‘different face’ and allure to strut out at a press conference. Any honest understanding of USA cities is their seeming willingness to ‘embrace’ the ‘black’ athlete on the playing field/ice.

    So they make a huge splash and the fun continues. Least that’s what I would be doing were I Nashville’s GM.

    • commandant says:

      You need to own your own “natural” picks to make offer sheets.

      With all of Nashville’s trades they don’t own their second rounder, which means that many of the categories for an offer sheet that would make Montreal think twice about matching are out of the question

      ie those that are

      1st 2nd 3rd rounder as compensation
      or
      two 1sts plus one 2nd, one 3rd

      Never mind the fact that Montreal can match most offers.

      Oh and seeing as we’re the team who owns that 2nd round pick, Nashville re-acquiring it to make the offer, isn’t likely.

      Go Habs Go!
      NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
      Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
      http://lastwordonsports.com/

      • habstrinifan says:

        Thanks for the response. Bear with me. This is great fun and we (well I learn a lot).

        I think you will agree re the ‘community or PR impact’ for Nashville right now if my scenario were to happen.

        So wouldnt Nashville then own 4 1st rnd picks… I am reading that the compensation is indeed 4 1st rnd picks.

        I say an offer which hits the 3rd ceiling if I recall.. 2 1st rnds.. is made. It’s definitely an exciting prospect, hockey world wise.

        • TomNickle says:

          Do you work for HockeyBuzz.com?

          Seriously.

        • commandant says:

          Two things.

          They need to be “natural picks” which means they are picks that belong to the predators due to their place in the standings. You can not substitute picks you get from other teams… so the Philly picks are out. Nashville’s Natural second rounder belongs to montreal

          The levels immediately below the four first rounders, all involve a 2nd rounder

          They are Two first-round picks and a second- and third-round pick for the next level

          and First, second and third for the level below that.

          By the time you get to a level that doesn’t involve a 2nd round pick you are below 4.5 million in cap hit, meaning montreal easily matches.

          Go Habs Go!
          NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
          Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
          http://lastwordonsports.com/

  56. TomNickle says:

    Subban will not be presented with an offer sheet in my opinion.

    The Habs have over $6 million in cap space, they can spend to 10% over it which takes them to $13 million.

    Not happening. The Habs, unlike the Predators can match any offer.

    • habstrinifan says:

      Guess I was writing my post above as you had finished yours. I think it is a beautiful scenario for the NHL if above happens. Lots of buzz.

      • commandant says:

        Sure, but the scenario is not allowed under the CBA.

        Unless they are going to make a Weber sized offer and give us 4 first rounders, the lack of 2nd round pick means they can’t go after subban.

        Any offer that doesn’t require a 2nd would be so low, Subban wouldn’t sign it, or the Habs would easily match.

        Go Habs Go!
        NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
        Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
        http://lastwordonsports.com/

        • habstrinifan says:

          Your details canbe taken care of by Nashville doing othe rthings to get the requisite 2nd rounders. Thanks for all the responses. II am serious about the PR impact league wise but it may be un-doable.

          • TomNickle says:

            No they can’t. They have to be your draft picks. They can’t be acquired draft picks.

          • commandant says:

            It needs to be a NATURAL pick. You can’t substitute someone else’s second rounder. Its not allowed.

            Montreal owns Nashville’s NATURAL pick.

            Go Habs Go!
            NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
            Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
            http://lastwordonsports.com/

      • TomNickle says:

        Again, there isn’t a team in the NHL who can outbid the Habs for Subban’s services if the Habs want to match. They have the cap space to match any offer and certainly have the cash.

        It ain’t gonna happen. You looking for hits to a blog or something?

        • habstrinifan says:

          Low blow.

          Geez!

          • TomNickle says:

            I’m dead serious. Your writing style and thought process is very similar to a former member here who blogs for that site. I’m asking sincerely if you’re a blogger, because your desire for entertainment is overwhelming.

            It’s at a level of a person who desperately needs excitement for either personal satisfaction or hits.

  57. Caper says:

    I was on thwe owners side in ’04 however the actions of Leopold and Snider have me backing the players this time. Absolutely assenine behaviour by the owners and Bettmam must be losing his mind as must many of the other owners.

  58. ProHabs says:

    If there is one thing we have learned about the cap and contracts is that there is usually away to get out of a bad contract. If you have a good GM that uses his imagination and takes the time to find loopholes in the contract, you can usually find ways to create cap space to add players.
    We have seen the Rangers do this before (Redden to the minors, find a sucker to take the Gomez contract), buy out a player to reduce cap hits. And now we are seeing the Flyers putting Pronger on LT and apparently as long as he doesn`t retire, the Flyers can use his cap space. I think Chicago send Heut to Europe to eliminate his cap hit.

    So even though the Bruins might not look like they have cap space, they can do something with Savards cap hit, probably something with Thomas`s (trade) and perhaps Horton (LT like Pronger) to make cap space to make an offer to Subban.

    The Canadiens seem to be the only team that can`t figure out how to make cap space. As long as the rich teams like Ranger and Philly are willing to swallow some millions (and the Habs are in this rich group as well but don`t seem willing to eat the Gomez salery and eliminate his hit by putting him in the minors) there is always ways to make cap room to make a move like Philly did in signing Weber.

    • TomNickle says:

      The Habs have over $6 million in cap space and will for the immediate future(they have much more since they can go to 10% over the cap)

      Think the Bruins are going to offer him $10 million annually?

    • HabinBurlington says:

      Well MB has only been here for a few months, and already showed some intelligance in how he used arbitration with Price to eliminate the possibility of him signing an offer sheet elsewhere. He has yet to watch this team play as the acting GM. In fairness he needs to see the talent or lack thereof himself before wiggling through loopholes me thinks.

  59. habstrinifan says:

    Cal writes:
    That’s the thing, though. PK would still have to sign the offer sheet. I don’t see that happeni.

    This reads as if there is a risk to the player in accepting an offer sheet..can you explain. Assuming of course the offer sheet is desirable terms what’s the player’s risk? Thanks.

  60. commandant says:

    I spent all morning on this… hope you guys like it.

    The History of NHL Offer Sheets

    http://lastwordonsports.com/2012/07/19/the-history-of-nhl-offer-sheets/

    Go Habs Go!
    NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
    Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
    http://lastwordonsports.com/

    • HardHabits says:

      How can you omit Phil Kessel?

      • Cardiac says:

        It was a trade.

        “There’s genius everywhere, but until they turn pro, it’s like popcorn in the pan. Some pop… some don’t.”
        – Jerry Maguire

      • GrimJim says:

        Technically there was never an offer sheet for Kessel. Burke traded for him, “remarkably” sending the same number of draft picks back as would have been required by an offer sheet.

        • commandant says:

          actually burke sent more.

          Based on the deal he signed with kessel the compensation would have been 1 first, 1 second and 1 third.

          The Bruins threatened to match that offer sheet.

          The next level up, which the Bruins would not match was 2 1sts, 1 2nd, 1 third.

          The Bruins agreed to take 2 x 1sts and 1 2nd to trade Kessel

          Mutually beneficial to both teams (bruins got better draft picks, Burke assured that the Bruins wouldn’t match and didn’t have to spend more to keep them from matching).

          Go Habs Go!
          NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
          Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
          http://lastwordonsports.com/

      • commandant says:

        Phil Kessel never signed an offer sheet.

        Go Habs Go!
        NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
        Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
        http://lastwordonsports.com/

    • Cardiac says:

      Good read and thanks for the research. Just one question: Do you know if any of those picks St. Louis had to give up in the 90s ever amount to anything?

      “There’s genius everywhere, but until they turn pro, it’s like popcorn in the pan. Some pop… some don’t.”
      – Jerry Maguire

      • Cardiac says:

        *Edit* Two of the picks ended up being Sergei Gonchar and Brendan Witt.

        “There’s genius everywhere, but until they turn pro, it’s like popcorn in the pan. Some pop… some don’t.”
        – Jerry Maguire

  61. commandant says:

    Where are these rumors that Boston is gonna make PK an offer sheet coming from.

    The Bruins have no cap space, even with Marc Savard on LTIR.

    Go Habs Go!
    NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
    Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
    http://lastwordonsports.com/

    • shiram says:

      Delusional fans.

    • HabFab says:

      Crack pipes.

    • Kfourn says:

      To be fair, I think the original poster was just joking around when he wrote that….kind of like a “now just watch Bruins sign PK”….It just escalated from there.

      _______________________________________________________
      Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

      “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

    • JUST ME says:

      Although it seems far fetch why would we be surprized it that happened ?
      Cause basically what i understand is that the owners want a new CBA to protect them from themselves. At the look of things it seems that it`s open season now until a new deal is reached. Anything goes right now. The more this comedy goes on the more the players are in control.

    • Ozmodiar says:

      > The Bruins have no cap space, even with Marc Savard on LTIR.

      Trade TT + demote a young D-man = 7M in cap space.

      It won’t happen, but not impossible.

  62. shiram says:

    Poile speaks:

    Nashville, Tenn. (July 19, 2012) – Nashville Predators President of Hockey Operations/General Manager David Poile issued the following statement this morning:

    “We are in receipt of the offer sheet signed between the Philadelphia Flyers and Shea Weber. Under the rules pertaining to an offer sheet, the Predators have one week to decide whether to match or accept the compensation. We have stated previously that, should a team enter into an offer sheet with Shea, our intention would be to match and retain Shea. Our ownership has provided us with the necessary resources to build a Stanley Cup-winning team. Due to the complexity of the offer sheet, we will take the appropriate time to review and evaluate it and all of its ramifications in order to make the best decision for the Predators in both the short and long-term.

    “We do not anticipate any further comments on this situation until we make our decision within the next seven days.”

    http://predators.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=638229

    • Cardiac says:

      We have stated previously that, should a team enter into an offer sheet with Shea, our intention would be to match and retain Shea.
      So, you’re gonna keep him… good for you and your fans!

      Our ownership has provided us with the necessary resources to build a Stanley Cup-winning team.
      So, show him the money!

      Due to the complexity of the offer sheet, we will take the appropriate time to review and evaluate it and all of its ramifications in order to make the best decision for the Predators in both the short and long-term.
      Wait… what?

      “There’s genius everywhere, but until they turn pro, it’s like popcorn in the pan. Some pop… some don’t.”
      – Jerry Maguire

      • shiram says:

        Typical GM double speak.

        • Cardiac says:

          Cover Your Ass 101

          “There’s genius everywhere, but until they turn pro, it’s like popcorn in the pan. Some pop… some don’t.”
          – Jerry Maguire

      • Kfourn says:

        Translation: “we don’t have the 26M in liquid cash to pay this kid July 1st next year, but we’ll see if we have some under the matress somewhere”

        _______________________________________________________
        Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

        “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

  63. HFX-HabFan says:

    It is entirely possible that the Predators choose not to match, and then send the compensatory picks back to Philly for roster players.

  64. Ozmodiar says:

    I think Poile should challenge Holmgren to a fist fight.

    • Kfourn says:

      I’d pay 5 bucks to see that.

      _______________________________________________________
      Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

      “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

    • HabFab says:

      What have you got against Poile? Man is taking a beating already and Holmgren would slaughter him.

  65. HabFab says:

    According to Darren Dreger, Nashville was talking to 3-4 teams about Weber and playing them off against each other. Flyers thought they had a deal a couple of times and then for it to be put out again…got tired and did this instead.

  66. commandant says:

    I hope the Preds match, I don’t want to see the Flyers with Weber.

    Go Habs Go!
    NHL Free Agency and Trade Analysis now.
    Team By Team Prospect Reports coming soon
    http://lastwordonsports.com/

    • TomNickle says:

      I’m not so sure that it’s that bad of a situation for Eastern Conference Teams.

      The Flyers would absolutely be the favourites in the East every year with Weber but there would be some serious fallout from the signing. The forfeiture of the four first round picks and some major cap implications. Simmonds, Hartnell and Timonen are all heading into contract years and as of this moment Jakub Voracek remains unsigned. Somebody with a big salary would have to be moved. In addition, it would become incredibly difficult for the Flyers to keep Sean Couturier, Matt Read and Brayden Schenn at the conclusion of their entry level contracts.

      Time isn’t on their side with this signing in terms of financial obligations.

      It’s a trade that essentially gives them a two year window to win a Cup or two.

      • Kfourn says:

        Add in signing Giroux 2 years from now…that’s going to be big.

        _______________________________________________________
        Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

        “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

        • TomNickle says:

          They’ll move heaven and earth to keep Giroux.

          • Kfourn says:

            But still have to work within a Cap…which means interesting/good players will become expendable….maybe someone the Habs can snatch up.

            _______________________________________________________
            Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

            “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

          • TomNickle says:

            Yes that was my opinion. My back’s sore, jump off any time.

          • Kfourn says:

            Try Robaxacet

            _______________________________________________________
            Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

            “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

          • TomNickle says:

            First of all. My opinion was that players with heavily front loaded contracts control the final years of their playing days more than normal because their salaries are low and have little to lose by sitting out if potential trade demands aren’t met. You said there’s loyalty among hockey players and cited two of over six hundred NHL players. You followed that up with a comment that there aren’t many front loaded contracts in the NHL, that’s false.

            It seems you’re typing for the sake of reading your words. I’m speculating that this COULD happen and that I think it will, on more than one occasion. I’m not saying tomorrow, I’m saying when some of these deals are towards the end of the line.

            You don’t think any of the players with heavily front loaded contracts will hold out for trades to more desirable locations with the knowledge that they have little to lose by holding out when their salaries are around $1 million? Okay, but that’s as far as it goes.

          • Kfourn says:

            I really don’t think you understand what I’m saying. I did not say that there aren’t many front loaded contracts. I said that there aren’t many front loaded contracts that have reached the end years yet. Therefore your opinion is that many will want to control where they play in their final years…to which I reply there aren’t many examples to confirm or deny this theory….HOWEVER it is MY OPINION that provided the team has no intention of trading the player because he is no longer producing…that most players will choose to stay loyal to their club.

            _______________________________________________________
            Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

            “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

          • TomNickle says:

            I was saying that I THINK it could happen. I know what your opinion is. Players are loyal and won’t make trade demands.

            My opinion is that they might, and if players in that situation decide to make trade demands then they’re in a position of power with little incentive to report to their teams if not traded.

            You’ve treated my prediction as if I said it was a fact. It isn’t. That’s why I’ve said to take a step back.

            Mere speculation kiddo.

            You’re arguing for the sake of reading your own words.

          • Kfourn says:

            No this all started with me answering a question you asked “What’s to stop a guy scheduled to make $1 million from holding out for a trade?”
            Loyalty was my answer…and then you kept pressing.

            I believe it is you who is arguing for the sake of getting the last word in….I leave it at that if you’re going to be condescending

            sincerely
            Kiddo

            _______________________________________________________
            Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

            “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

          • TomNickle says:

            It was rhetorical. Because there’s nothing to stop a player with a front loaded contract from seeking a trade at the conclusion when he’s being paid $1 million.

            And he would hold all of the power.

          • Kfourn says:

            Yup, you’re right about that there’s nothing stopping them.

            _______________________________________________________
            Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

            “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

      • Ozmodiar says:

        The Flyers are fine cap wise.

        Pronger on LTIR. Timonen’s likely done after this year.

        Worst case for them would be losing Hartnell, which might be good for the Habs in 2013.

  67. HFX-HabFan says:

    Hartnell-Giroux-Read
    Couturier-Briere-Voracek
    Fedotenko-B Schenn-Simmonds
    Rinaldo-Talbot-Wellwood

    Timonen-Weber
    Coburn-Mezsaros
    Grossman-L Schenn

    Bryzgalov
    Leighton

    Not a bad squad at all

  68. Jan_pronounced_Yan says:

    I think it’s interesting to compare this offer sheet scenario to the one a few years ago when Edmonton signed Thomas Vanek to an offer-sheet in the 2007 offseason.

    In both scenarios, the compensation would be 4 1st-round picks. What’s interesting is the situations that the respective teams found themselves in at the time.

    If you recall, in 2007, the Oilers were one year removed from making the Stanley Cup Finals. The Sabres had just lost Briere and Drury to unrestricted free agency. Buffalo felt they had to match, since their fans would not accept losing their 3 top players at the time. However, if they had taken the picks, they could have gotten a king’s ransom. Edmonton missed the playoffs each year after that, and finished in the bottom 3 in the last 2 years of those compensation picks.

    Of course, with Vanek in Edmonton, things would have been different, but there is still a good chance that Edmonton would have finished pretty low in the standings even with him. As is, their 4 picks from the 2008 draft to the 2011 draft were Eberle, Pajaarvi, Hall and Nugent-Hopkins. That’s quite a haul for a player like Vanek. Imagine if Buffalo had matched.

    Now, Philly is in a different situation. They have picked lower than 20th position in each of the last 4 drafts. The Preds are just coming off a decent playoff run. They had no intention of rebuidling. While the likelihood of Nashville getting a haul like the one mentioned above is nearly impossible, it still makes you wonder whether you should just take the picks and rebuild.

    What’s interesting to me is that Philly would still win this deal right now if Nashville matches. They have a good young core that is playoff-ready NOW and can be a real contender for many years if Weber is with them. Edmonton was not in the same position.

    This is why the Habs could not do the same thing as Philly though. We are not at the stage where we could afford to give up those picks, especially when we could still finish pretty low this year.

  69. ed lopaz says:

    “Oh yeah, National Hockey League owners need contract concessions from the Players Association … for the good of the game, and all that.” is what Boone writes sarcastically.

    Quite clear that Nashville needs some help and the Flyers don’t.

    Just as a player like a 4th line forward or 3rd pairing d-man needs some help, but clearly Weber does not.

    I don’t get why this is so hard to understand.

  70. TomNickle says:

    Weber and Subban comparisons are ridiculous.

    Weber is a unanimous top three NHL defenseman(best in my opinion). Subban is a young player still gaining experience and is nowhere near Weber’s level.

  71. TomNickle says:

    I’m putting my Kreskin hat on for minute. Looking at all of these long contracts that pay star players $1 million in a great number of final seasons, there’s something that may happen.

    These players toward the end of their careers may force trades to teams they would rather play for than the clubs they signed the contracts with.

    What’s to stop a guy scheduled to make $1 million from holding out for a trade?

    • Kfourn says:

      Not every player is a Rick Nash or Heatley…some people have loyalty.

      _______________________________________________________
      Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

      “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

      • Timo says:

        I seriously doubt that.

      • TomNickle says:

        I’m not saying every player who has signed a long term deal with low money at the back end will hold out for a trade to a more desirable team. But I believe there will be cases where it does happen, and more than one.

        • Kfourn says:

          I see it happening more with the non-hockey market teams…but then again there’s always examples of players with loyalty to their non-tradition hockey market teams (more so than those that want out) Selanne and Doan come to mind at the top of my head.

          _______________________________________________________
          Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

          “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

          • TomNickle says:

            Over six hundred players in the NHL in a given season and there are two names(Alfredsson is another) that have shown loyalty.

            Neither of those players by the way are in a situation where they stand to make little money on the back end of a front loaded contract. Alfredsson is in that boat, but he’s only one player.

          • Kfourn says:

            But then most of these front loaded contracts were signed after the last CBA so we don’t have many examples to choose from either to confirm or deny your theory. I however choose to believe that most players will stay loyal to their clubs…not tarnish their names as a prima donna and demand a trade.

            _______________________________________________________
            Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

            “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

          • TomNickle says:

            Suter, Parise, Luongo, Lecavalier, Keith and Weber are examples from the top 9 teams on capgeek.com

            There are quite a few of these contracts out there.

          • Kfourn says:

            Yes, but none of these players are in the final years of their contracts, so we don’t know how they will handle it when they get there yet.

            _______________________________________________________
            Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

            “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

          • TomNickle says:

            Seriously? Your replies were to an opinion that it will happen in the future, not tomorrow.

            Take a step back champ.

          • Kfourn says:

            My replies were to the fact that you think peoples integrity and loyalty will change in the future…I think not.

            _______________________________________________________
            Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

            “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

          • TomNickle says:

            You’re assuming they’ve signed their contracts out of loyalty in the first place. Shea Weber definitely signed an offer sheet with the Flyers out of loyalty to the Predators didn’t he?

            Suter and Parise with the Wild? Those showed tremendous loyalty to the Preds and Devils didn’t they?

      • Cal says:

        The only loyalty is to the almighty dollar.

  72. Kfourn says:

    David Poile’s press report confirming the rumours http://predators.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=638229&navid=DL|NSH|home
    _______________________________________________________
    Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

    “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

  73. habs03 says:

    OH man, that contract breakdown is nuts, 27M in less than a year, and average about 13M for the first 6 years of the deal.

    I really hope Preds somehow match to keep Weber out West, but man are they in a pickle.

    And imaging there is a lock out, paying Weber 27M for NOTHING…

    • Timo says:

      I don’t think players get paid during a lockout.

      • Kfourn says:

        They do if they have a signing bonus, and that would mean that Webber would get 13M anyway regardless of Lockout.

        _______________________________________________________
        Well, he’s kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace “accidentally” with “repeatedly” and replace “dog” with “son.”

        “It’s sad when our rookies have no NHL experience before they jump up to the NHL.” – nunacanadien

  74. Ghosts of the Forum says:

    The more I think about it, the more I think, offer Voracek 3 years at 3.3 million, risk losing a second round pick (we have Nashville’s next year anyway…and as mentioned below, presumably it’ll be better than ours) and put him on a line with Pleks. I think the potential reward outweighs the risk.


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