Doing the math

For what it’s worth, the numbers crunches at sportsclubstats.com say the Canadiens have a 97.9-per-cent chance of making the playoffs even after last night’s meltdown in Carolina. 

There’s one scenario in which the Canadiens have control of their own destiny. If they win – or lose in OT or in a shootout – against Toronto tomorrow night, they’re in.

If the Canadiens  lose in regulation, there are several back-door opportunities. They’re in if:

• The Rangers lose one of their two remaining games against Philadelphia or win one of of those games in OT or a shootout.

• The Rangers sweep the Flyers in regulation time.

• The Bruins lose their two remaining games in regulation – against Carolina tomorrow and in Washington Sunday.

88 Comments

  1. wotever says:

    The Canes, 11th, are not the worst team in the NHL, 6 points behind the flyers and Ward was out for a good bout, and have won or overtime’d 7 of their last ten (including us), Islanders, 12th, won or overtime 6 of their last 10, including.  These late eliminated team pushes are normal.   

    You’ll have to speak up – I’m wearing a towel.

  2. Natrous says:

    No, they had a system, and his name was Patrick Roy.

  3. Garbo says:

    Wrong – 1 point from Islanders

  4. dicktracy says:

    As I recall it was 2 years @ Pat Burns + 1 year Demers = Cup

  5. Klondike Habs Fan says:

    Not to worry, I am not in the runnung for the coach job, and I agree Pyatt has been great, but lets put a few offensive forwards together and let them play!

  6. Danno says:

    Their selection of Habs stuff is pretty limited. And most of it ships out of the U.S. so you pay more.

     

    “Hey Richard, two minutes for looking so good!”

  7. smiler2729 says:

    Ever wonder how come the Leafs always come out to play vs. the Habs and the Habs never do?

    I used to think it was the Canadian factor, the Leafs had more North American born players that knew and understood the rivalry whereas the Habs were predominantly a bunch of uncaring Europeans that treated it as another night off on the ice.

    I don’t get it.

  8. nastyHABit says:

    count chocula and his SYSTEM need an OVERHAUL

  9. mike g says:

    I know it sucks…

    I stopped buying from NHL.COM….it’s wayy overpriced, and always out of sizes. All my stuff is baught of ebay now. You catch some nice deals, and unique stuff that the NHL website doesn’t offer…

    “These head movies make my eyes rain” -Simple Jack

  10. 100HABS says:

    Last time they won a cup, they had a system ingrained into them by Pat Burns. It was still part of the team. Demers just made them believe they could do it. Pat taught them how to play hockey, Demers showed them how to win.

    Martin has a system that I now understand. I don’t like it – I don’t think it works for this team. We are now healthy and losing to teams who are not in the playoffs when it matters most to us. This is not right. We should have already clinched the Sabres in the first round and now it’s looking like a backdoor date with the Caps.

  11. smiler2729 says:

    Markov. Souray. At least Souray had heart.

  12. smiler2729 says:

    Summing up the Montreal Canadiens of the new millennium:

    “To you from failing hands we blow the torch out, because you have no idea what being a Montreal Canadien is all about. Basically you all suck.”

  13. Fabio D says:

    LOL…this whole scenario is a joke.

    They had 2 chances to clinch a play-off spot against 2 of the worst teams in the Eastern conference and couldn’t steal 1 point from either.

    Now, it comes down another bottom feeder, who ALWAYS comes out to play against the Habs.

    Does anyone honestly think the Habs won’t crumble on Sat against a team that always turns it up a notch when they play the Habs?

    The back door in is great (insert rolley eye smiley)….did wonders for the team last year, when Boston spanked them out in 4.

    At this point, they finish to high to earn a decent draft pick, so might as well make what they can of it in the play-offs.

    Let’s hope neither of our goalies have a bad game, they unfortunately don’t have the luxury of taking a night off or letting in one bad goal.

    Let’s hope the boys have somehting left in the tank for whatever scenario they find themselves in.

    Break out the Rabbit’s feet, four leaf clovers, horsehoes and lucky pennies Habs fans. This team needs all the help it can get.

  14. nastyHABit says:

    here we go again……same as last year…….BACKING INTO THE PLAYOFF DOOR ARSE FIRST

  15. DOAHABS says:

    Only his pension plan,..and I hope he’s on it Soon

  16. TomNickle says:

    I’ll sell you an old Souray hat if it makes ya feel better!  Could you really expect anything less from the NHL?

     

    With Jacques Martin at the helm, we are doomed to be a good team instead of a great one

  17. SeriousFan09 says:

    What the hell is the point of NHL.com offering up custom t-shirts on their shop if you aren’t allowed to put current players on the back of the shirt? I want my damn Markov t-shirt but they’re out of XL, again. Won 100$ today in school and have it burning in my back pocket, got Toews and Ovechkin shirts in the cart already but it doesn’t feel right not having a new Canadiens t-shirt, especially since Lapierre is likely to get kicked to the curb this offseason.

     

    – I shall always remember Captain Koivu.
    http://habsandhockey.blogspot.com/

  18. Bogie Man says:

    Despite all the so called back door oppertunities to get into the playoffs I truly believe it is a must win against Toronto tomorrow night!

  19. Danno says:

    Sad. but true.

     

    “Hey Richard, two minutes for looking so good!”

  20. fuhgawz says:

    Josh Gorges has always talked like a Captain and acts like one its why he should be appointed as so.

  21. TomNickle says:

    Metro is hurt and if you’d have Pyatt on the 4th line I’m glad you aren’t our coach, no offense.  He’s just been our best defensive forward since the Olympics in my opinion.

     

    With Jacques Martin at the helm, we are doomed to be a good team instead of a great one

  22. Storm Man says:

    Booooo him at the game on Saturday Im leading the charge

  23. smiler2729 says:

    Let’s put the Kostitsyn brothers together… in the pressbox.

  24. smiler2729 says:

    The system. There’s that word again, a word always attached to Jacques Martin as if he invented “the system”.

    Every team plays a system, hell, they play many systems over a course of a game as it evolves. It’s a catch-all phrase to describe playing basic fundamental hockey, a game even 5 year olds can play.

    These guys need forget about Martin’s strict “system” and play the system they were taught as kids simply called hockey.

    The last time Montreal won a Cup in ’93, I believe Jacques Demers had no “system”, they played and reacted offensively or defensively to whatever the score was

  25. Storm Man says:

    JM has no plan

  26. fuhgawz says:

    Dear Jacques Martin:

    I have watched 81 agonizing games with you as head coach of my beloved Montreal Canadiens this season and i would like to touch on a few observations i have taken to note.   You suck.  Your system sucks. You obviously have no idea how to prepare a team when it matters.  You treat players like feces. You do not support any of your players.  Your funny looking.  You show the same amount of emotion as the rock i kicked before coming into the office today.  Your a joke.  You have a love affair with MAB.  Your predictable.  You will NEVER win a cup in this city.  Your idea of coaching rivals Gaineys idea of being a GM.  I frankly do not you here coaching this team anymore.

     

  27. Captain aHab says:

    These stats are nothing more than meaningless mental masturbation. This is real life, not XBOX.

  28. Klondike Habs Fan says:

    If I were JM, and I am not, because I dont put pyatt out there when we are down goals and need offense, these would be my lines going forward:

    AK Plek SK

    Gio Gomez Cammel

    Moen Metro Poulio

    Pyatt LAP Darch / Who am I missing here?

    Anyway, those are your best top two we ca get right now. Time to put the Brothers Kostitsyn together, might genreate a bit of offense, and it might make this game seem a bit fun to the boys.

  29. Kooch7800 says:

    Ah don’t knock the bulldogs (sarcasim). They are a well coached team that plays hard.  I have been very impressed with them this year and with their goaltending think they have a good shot at winning the Calder again 

  30. TomNickle says:

    Cammalleri doesn’t play tonight!

     

     

    With Jacques Martin at the helm, we are doomed to be a good team instead of a great one

  31. Danno says:

    JM’s secret plan is to make sure the Habs are play possum to secure 8th place. After that, they will be miraculously be transformed into ferocious tigers and destroy the Capitals.

     

    “Hey Richard, two minutes for looking so good!”

  32. mike g says:

    Let’s all cheer for our favorite Mike tonight…..

    http://thephillyphour.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/mike-richards1.jpg

     

    “These head movies make my eyes rain” -Simple Jack

  33. Storm Man says:

    The bottom line who draws up the game plan? who puts the lines together? who gives icetime? this would be why this team is where it is at.

  34. adesbarats says:

    I would say the entire habs team are fully aware of these statitstics as it is the only explaination I can conjure up for that piss poor performance last night.I can just hear the locker room chatter now:

    “Ah, don’t sweat it guys. Let’s just coast. Don’t wanna work too hard. Don’t have to cause our stats guys tell us we have a 97.9% chance of getting in even if we sit on our asses. Somebody pass me a beer”

  35. dicktracy says:

    Josh Gorges talks like a captain. Too bad. Too late.

  36. habsnyc says:

    Sadly, this passes for excitement in Montreal hockey.  However, the odds are so overwhelmingly in favor of Montreal making the playoffs, even if they lose to Toronto, that fans should not invest any emotional energy in the Toronto game and just gear up for the playoffs.

    The team is structurally impaired for the near term because their older, less productive players are signed to long term contracts and their younger more productive players are not.  Unless they find a $1million a year forty goal scorer or Norris winner, they cannot overcome their self inflicted salary issues.  It speaks volumes about player development when an organization with only one possible franchise player can be uncertain after three years if he is their go to player.  I cannot develop much enthusiasm for a team that places so many obstacles in the way of their own success. 

    There is a chasm between the fan base and ownership.  The fans identify with the team and want to associate with a winning heritage.  Ownership wants the fans to identify with the brands controlled by the owners while generating sufficient cash flow to cover their costs.  This is at least better than prior ownership who used financial leverage and good marketing to flip the team.  However, neither scenario has lead to building a supeior hockey organization.  Ownership will not take financial or organization risks deliver on what the fans want because from a business point of view, the risk is unjustifiable.  The system ensures perpetual mediocrity offset only by random bursts of unsustainable success or failure. 

  37. wd40 says:

    agreed, but i did say ALL of the above, which includes the lowly Leaves beating us on Saturday night.  Gawd I hope not, but … you know they are going to be up for that game.

  38. tony d says:

    The only math I know is:

    Back door entrance = early exit

  39. Laramy87 says:

    Just beat the F***in leafs… problem solved

  40. Laramy87 says:

    Rangers sweeping flyers is still okay, because Philly is a point behind us so we still get in. If rangers win both games and one is ot then Flyers have tie breaker against us

  41. habbyone says:

    If given the chance I believe the Bull dogs would have given a better performance these last few games. Year after year of this crap. This is how they play with the season on the line? You watched it the last few games. This is what the real habs look like!!! Problems start with coaching but there’s a lot more problems with this bunch. Brutal to say the least. I hope Toronto sends these aholes packing. They don’t deserve to be in the playoffs!

  42. wd40 says:

    97.9 % chance eh, well, sadly, i think the chance of ALL of the following happening over the next few days are also pretty high:

    * Leafs beating the Habs on Saturday night.  

    * Rangers sweeping the Flyers

    * Boston winning one of their remaining two games.

    Sad it’s come down to this.

  43. HabsFanInTampa says:

    Did any of these “geniuses” crunch the numbers on the odds that we get swept in the first round???

  44. Diriangen says:

    This is pathetic. Crunching the numbers should relate to a team’s strategic outlook and players acomplishments / achievements i.e. how much salary cap room will the Habs have next year? or Does Halak deserve any recognition for the Vezina award this year, given his numbers (I’m just saying this as an example).

    We shouldn’t have to crunch numbers because of a team’s undisciplined and uninterested approach to playing its last few games… and (players) doing their jobs.

    Like Boone said, “no pride” whatsoever on this team. Instead of practicing today, they should take them to a local hospital or fire station or elementary school to see how normal folks go about their days on a regular basis… with hard work, real challenges, genuine effort and a sense of responsibility (pride).

    Except for a few players on this team, most notably: Georges, Gill, Gionta, Moen, Metro, Darche, Moore, Halak, and Pleky, the rest are just floating out there.

    I’ve been a Habs fan for a long time. Given the circumstances, yesterday’s game was one of the most dissapointing Habs games I’ve ever seen.

  45. smiler2729 says:

    Hell, the Habs are, when rolling and engaged, a rockin’ entertaining team… but where did that team go?

    Is it really all Jacques Martin? Was it all Guy Carbonneau? Or Claude Julien or Michel Therrien???

    No, too many passengers with no terminal on this team, the only guys who played like their hearts and souls were on hockey fire on past post-lockout teams were Saku Koivu, Sheldon Souray, Tom Kostopoulos, Craig Rivet and Christopher Higgins. But the Habs of those seasons were littered with soft gutless wonders like Jan Bulis, some guy named Perezhogin and a dude so enamored by his immense talent he was dubbed L’Artiste (no, not Prince).

    That team was blown up to bring in more grit and character and for the most part, it’s in place, other than The Magnificent Floating Kostitsyn Brothers and an apparently sublimely talented puck moving wonder named Markov, this team IS a no quit, driven bunch -BUT- where the HELL is the drive???? Maybe it’s time to pull a Lamoriello and pull the plug on the coach.

    I’m really at a loss and this is all so scarily predictable.

  46. nick says:

    It’s a pretty sad story when the team has to hope someone else other than TO loses in order for MTL to make the playoffs. If the guys can’t get their collective heads around the idea of winning during the season against none contenders, what makes people thing that it’ll happen in the post season against a top seeder team?

    As for who starts between the pipes next game? I say Price.


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