# Revisionist math

At the halfway point in their regular-season schedule, your Montreal Canadiens have 39 points.
Assuming 92 to make the playoffs, can they get 53 points in their remaining 41 games?

In my Saturday column in The Gazette, I said the Canadiens would have to play at a .650 clip, winning twice as often as they lose, to punch their ticket to the postseason dance.

Gern Blanston took issue with my math:

I just wanted to point out that this calculation is very simplistic, if you assume the OT losses continue at the same pace (meaning the Habs get 7 of those points in the second half as they did in the first) that means they would have to go 23-11-7 to get the 53 points, which is only a .560 winning percentage.

That seems a lot more do-able doesn’t it?

Well, it’s do-able if you’re one of the better teams in the NHL.

The St. Louis Blues, who bring the Jaro Halak Tour to the Bell Centre Tuesday night, have played 41 games and amassed the point total the Canadiens need in the second half: 53.

The Vancouver Canucks, who won in Boston on Saturday to raise their point total to 55, also had 53 after 41 games.

Chicago, which has lost three in a row, has 52 points through 41 games.

In the Eastern Conference, with the exception of the Rangers, Boston and Philadelphia, no one has more than 50 points.

Florida hits the halfway mark at 48 points. New Jersey and Ottawa, two teams the Canadiens are chasing for a playoff spot, have 48 after 41 and 42 games, respectively.

Bottom Line (and I don’t mean Blunden-Nokelainen-Darche): To make the playoffs, the Canadiens will have to be an elite team in the second half, beginning with that huge game against Jaro and the Blues.

But hey, they’re undefeated in 2012.

Anything is possible.

• •  •

Like the Canadiens, Calgary is in 12th place.

But although the Flames are only four points out of eighth, there is speculation about a sell-off that would see Jarome Iginla (who scored his 500th goal Saturday) and maybe Miikka Kiprusoff moved to a Cup contender for prospects and draft choices.

•  •  •

Finally, a classic clip dug up by Zdenek Matejovsky, who covers the Canadiens for Czech television.

It seems a pane of rink glass was shattered during a game in one of the Czech Republic’s minor leagues.

With no replacement glass available and the home team in danger of having to forfeit, they came up with an innovative solution: A backup goaltender sat on the side of the rink holding a table to fill the space where the glass had broken.

1. H.Upmann says:

testing again

2. H.Upmann says:

testing

3. Mila says:

So apparently Enquist and Palushaj are on a hot streak with the Bulldogs. I still think they have a future in the Habs. They just weren’t really given any confidence under Martin. I bet if they were still with the big club under RC, they’d definitely be given the chance to produce. Just my .02 cents.

• JIMVINNY says:

where? they are not better than anyone on the roster right now.

• If the Habs don’t up the wins PG will hopefully be making place for them on the big club around the trade deadline.

http://www.puckbandits.com

• BTVHabsFan says:

Come on….Enqvist is softer than dough….he makes Henrik Sedin look gritty.

• Mr. Biter says:

I don’t think AP will ever play for the Habs. He has had his chances and not produced. You only get so many chances.

Mr. Biter

4. HardHabits says:

5. Habitant in Surrey says:

…have not been feeling too well this past 6 weeks or so, in and out of hospital like a surgical-sponge …the meds not doin’ much to make Me feel more upbeat, in fact the opposite
…but watching the developing elan of Our Team’s play under Randy Cunneyworth these past few games, and watching Boonie’s Steelers being ‘Tebowed’ today by the Broncos
…better than Viagra !

Habitant means PASSIONATE HOCKEY
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=423049

• FormalWare says:

Get better, quick!

If Eller were pronounced “Ell-ay”, Larry would be #2 with a bullet!

• Mr. Biter says:

Hope they find out what is the problem and fix you up.

Mr. Biter

• matt jordan says:

Hope you feel better Habitant.

• VancouverHab says:

Hey HiS: wishing you all the best.

If you want a fellow Hab-lover to meet and chat over the season affairs with, just send me an e-mail!

Take care…

• Peter Young says:

Yes, the Canadiens winning a few is a great tonic. Wishing you well in the health wars, comrade. In solidarity ….

hang in Habitant…I go thru it all the time ….cancer for me…hang on out west… and don’t stop takin’ the meds…gotta keep your levels up, get well soon…\/

take your drink to the end of the bar buddy…come on now, don’t be a fool…

6. showey47 says:

Looking at the way RC keeps attacking and pressing for more goals instead of sitting back on 3rd period leads and blowing about 15 games in the process like JM did. You would have to wonder where we would be in the standings had PG fired JM at the same time he fired pearn. I’d say we would be in a playoff spot.

• HardHabits says:

The difference between 6th and 10th is 4 points. It is likely that the Habs would be somewhere in that range if PG fired JM at the same time he fired Pearn.

• JUST ME says:

I tend to agree with your statement. Furthermore the pre season calendar should have been managed otherwise. We had a very bad start of the season because the chemistry was not there. I guess excuses are for losers but at least we should learn from them…

7. HabFanSince72 says:

Ottawa came back from 4-2 down in the 3rd to beat the Flyers 6-4. Bryzgalov was just laughably bad.

• otter649 says:

Flyers have another 8+ years of Bryzgalov goaltending to look forward……

• aj says:

News Reporter: What do you think of your performance?
Ilya Bryzgalov: Outstanding!

(his answer to the reporter after Philly’s loss to the Lighting. Watch part 4 of HBO’s 24/7)

8. doug19 says:

Wow! Yesterday!

Portland Winterhawks 4 Vancouver Giants 8 (Final)

Brendan Gallagher – three goals (25,26,27), four assists

Forget the FN playoffs, prospects even in Hamilton are coming around.We SHOULD have a very young talented team next year.
Make some deals to let veteran players have a shot at the cup!
Gomez could make a difference for someone else!

• Curtis O Habs says:

Gomez could make a difference with my noon hour shinny red squad. I`m sure of it.

• DorvalTony says:

Yeah the under 18 women’s team.

——————————–
“Okay, everybody take a Valium.”

9. dpeet says:

Seen the boston -vancouver game , all of it, and i gotta say boston reminds me of the broad street bullies from philly.Dirty team in this league by far.Marchand should be gone from league,a little rat in sheeps clothing, some day he will get what he deserves, cheap shot artist at his best. Lucic what can i say, enough said, he was going off the ice and came back on and the dirtiest player of all chara, in the last minute of game he gave a two hander slash to a vancouver defenseman no call but the defenseman that was slashed got a penalty , what a joke, i,ve noticed that all cheap work usually happens in boston ice.If the bruins had any significant injuries this year , they would falter.I hope the league slaps both Lucic and Marchand with suspenions, but gut feel maybe one game.

10. HardHabits says:

I saw the Cirque du Soleil Quidam in Oshawa this week-end. What an amazing show. It was a like a rock concert, a musical, a play, a ballet, a comedy, with acrobatics, singing, and storytelling all combined into one massively entertaining multi-media presentation. I remember when Cirque du Soleil used to perform in the streets of Old Montreal. Too bad Guy Laliberté didn’t purchase the Habs.

11. punkster says:

Math, percentages, stats, projections, prognostications…all of it meant to paint a detailed picture and present an absolute truth about the Habs chances of reaching the playoffs.

I’m just a poor fan who wants to be entertained so give me some of that funky stuff, Bootsy style.

***Subbang Baby!!!***

12. HardHabits says:

I am going to post this for the 3rd time:

============

You know when a disposable lighter runs out of gas and you’re sitting there trying your best to get a flame going but the thing is spent so all you see is that little spark trying to ignite nothing. Well that is the protest by the Montreal Francais. Just a meaningless little spark trying to catch some fumes. 200 friggin’ people!! That is like 0.003 of Quebec’s population!!

You want to know what the English response is? It is the risk of being a heap load of butane gas just waiting to turn that insignificant little spark into a full blown inferno.

Just ignore it folks. Put your emotions away and use your friggin’ brains for a change a try to take the higher ground.

So. Let’s support the French language as Habs fans.

============

As for Habs fans outside of Quebec and Montreal. You are not the ones going to the games and buying season tickets. Nor do you live in the jurisdiction where the Habs operate. If you want to be a Habs fan you have two options. Accept the reality or… accept the reality.

• ZepFan2 says:

“If you want to be a Habs fan you have two options. Accept the reality or… accept the reality.”

Or pray that Bettman gives Quebec a team.

I do agree with your lighter metaphor. Ignore the clowns.

———————————————————————-

• Mr. Biter says:

Just so I don’t have to read for the 4th time,
the Molson family has been in Quebec How many years and are still considered Anglo? Also at \$300.00 a pop for the most expensive seats which are taken by Corporations which are for the most Canada wide. I highly doubt any of the protesters will be paying \$24,000+ for a season ticket. Also look at the billboard advertising. Lots of Canada wide money going there.

Mr. Biter

• HardHabits says:

They still server a large French speaking public or the games wouldn’t be telecast by RDS. Molson is an Anglo. He’s a Quebecker also.

I don’t support the protesters. I loathe Montreal Francais. I do not support the territorial integrity of the current province if separation occurs. Sometimes I even muse about an independent Montreal.

In my mind though an independent Montreal would still be bi-lingual and it would still be necessary for the coach of the Habs to be able to speak French.

• DorvalTony says:

Bull hits. Quebec language as you call it (where the f_ do you live?) is whatever language Quebeckers choose to speak. 150 Separatists and liberal-left Quisling media have you doing the lemming leap? Smarten up.

——————————–
“Okay, everybody take a Valium.”

• montreal ace says:

HH your take on the situation here is very wise, 200 people is nothing when it concerns language in Quebec. The amount of press this group received was far too much, and most people realize this.

• Seps says:

As a background: I am an Ontarian ? but a die hard Habs fan, I have my french certificate from taking french immersion but obviously I’m predominately english. By watching the protests, I didnt see one wearing a Habs jersey, nor did they look like fans of the team, just idiots seemed to be out there because ONE, every Hab fan knows that Molson made it clear that RC is only an interim and they will pursue a french-speaking coach in the off-season, and TWO RC is making an effort to learn/speak french so doesn’t that count for anything?

you are right on the money…don’t give the bastards the time of day…the media will keep this shit going as long as we feed them…not biting anymore on the bait…200 stund ppl…hardly a major problem unless we get sucked in with their bull…kiss my grits..\/

take your drink to the end of the bar buddy…come on now, don’t be a fool…

13. Psycho29 says:

The debate is on in the comment section about the Marchand hit:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=610655

• SmartDog says:

The Bruins continue to look for creative ways to seriously hurt other players within grey areas of the rules. Marchand should be severely punished.

Does anyone know, is this an in-person meeting? It better be.
————————————-
Listen to the Smart Dog. He knows his poop!

• Psycho29 says:

NESN (For what its worth) says its a phone hearing

• SmartDog says:

Then it’s a slap on the wrist.
That’s a problem right there.
Shanahan is a joke.
————————————-
Listen to the Smart Dog. He knows his poop!

• Psycho29 says:

Sportsnet just did a lengthy report on the incident, and because it’s a phone hearing it will be 5 games or less.
He is a repeat offender. He has received 2 games for a hit to the head on a Bluejacket. Also, a \$2,500 fine for a slew foot.
How he never got a penalty for 5 or 6 jabs to Sedin last year I’ll never know.

• DorvalTony says:

I hate Marchand but that was a pretty innocuous hit.

——————————–
“Okay, everybody take a Valium.”

• Duracell3 says:

The word creative reminds me, somewhere in the comments there, someone literally describes the hit as being “creative”.

Shockingly, he thought the blatant shoulder to knee cheap shot was not a penalty.

14. novahab says:

Chaulk one up for the poster child of the Chrsitian right. Take that all you poor and sick people who think the good christian people of the GOP should pay for your health care. The might of god struck down big Ben and my Steelers. Well that devil loving Brady with the parade of models won’t stand a chance.

• powdered toastmann says:

Uhhhh, Okay.

• Mr. Biter says:

And Obama’s gonna pay for my house and car. Right. Wait, on second read novahad what point are you trying to make? And BTW I go to church once a year (Christmas), right wing yes, but bible thumper no.

Mr. Biter

• Lawrencetown Liquor Pigs says:

Tebow. Simmer down fellas.

____________________________________________________
They lost me 2 quarts of rum, better make it up next year with a cup!

• Mr. Biter says:

If he wins again vs the Pats I might even go on Easter. I watched the Pats / Denver game and like the Habs before our last 2 games Denver had 17 points scored on them in the last 2 minutes of the 2nd quarter (sounds like Habs before RC) which blew the game open. If I was a bettin man (and I am) the smart money will be on the Pats , however……….

Mr. Biter

• Da Hema says:

What’s with all the God talk today? Perhaps this is all my fault for writing earlier that the Habs will need divine intervention to make the playoffs this year, which started a Noah’s flood of God cheers for this team or that team sort of comments. At any rate, we all should know God does not provide divine spark to the heathen NFL.

• Seps says:

You can’t talk like “we should all know” because if you paid any attention to Tim Tebow you’d understand how God’s on his side on and off the field.

• smiler2729 says:

What’s wrong with being Christian? So the guy believes in himself and offed your Steelers, get over it.

___________________________________
Jack Edwards sucks chowdah chunks

15. SmartDog says:

Cunneyworth’s problems solved!

————————————-
Listen to the Smart Dog. He knows his poop!

• Ian Cobb says:

HEY DOG! that’s how I speak English as well. People even think I know what I’m talking about.

• SmartDog says:

Confidence goes a long way! That and a good bottle of wine.

————————————-
Listen to the Smart Dog. He knows his poop!

16. krob1000 says:

That percentage may seem better but it is still 12 games over .500 no matter how you describe it…ties are just games lost from the amount of games to get to 12 over .500

17. habs001 says:

To have the type of run the habs need to make the playoffs the pp has to improve by a lot…we will be in a lot of one goal games where the difference will be the pp vs pk results….

18. Lafrich says:

It was my understanding that there would be no math…

• BrianSkrudland says:

Lafrich – You beat me to it! Well played.

• Lafrich says:

Figured someone would pick up the reference.

• alfieturcotte says:

Good SNL reference Lafrich…….

19. habsperspective says:

This week, includes dates with nothing wose then current top 8 teams in the league with St Louis, Boston, and back to back against Ottawa and the Rangers.

The team already sits 7 points out of the playoffs.

Still no reason to think this powerplay is gonna get turned around, or Markov playing.

Even considering the decent play of there last games, this mountain seems insurmountable.

• You gotta ignore all that logic until they’re mathematically eliminated! heh

http://www.puckbandits.com

• naweed235 says:

it’s ridiculous how they are not getting any help WHAT SO EVER from other teams either… Every single team that the Habs need to lose seem to win …

Remember when we were in the same position and Halak helped us out while Price was hurt?

20. habs001 says:

flyers lose to ottawa..teams like the flyers,bruins and rangers dont need as many points in the second half to make the playoffs so if they give up points to teams we need to catch it may need 93-95 points to make the playoff…

21. HabFab says:

Bournival and Ellis each had a goal and assist in their first game as Q team mates.

22. gmd says:

Boone’s Steelers done in by Tebow time.

Yup, pretty sweet.
I haven’t been that emotional with my Broncos since the Elway years !
The game kinda reminded me of our 2010 run over PIT and WAS.

Habs, OLE !

• gmd says:

Jack Todd will still probably put Tebow as a “zero” in his column.

• powdered toastmann says:

Agree, but Jack Todd’s opinion concerning Tebow means squat, so who cares.

• Mr. Biter says:

Anything about God and Americans drive Todd insane. He will have a Rant tomorrow.

Mr. Biter

• DorvalTony says:

Draft dodger bum.

——————————–
“Okay, everybody take a Valium.”

23. Sal says:

I haven’t seen any evidence in years, the Habs are anywhere near elite team status, so for those of you cup half full guys, bless your naive little hearts, my suggestion is to consider a trade/s for picks or prospects, a cup half full move. Just look to the Sens for evidence of the effectiveness of that kind of planning ahead. The sooner the better too, because teams with needs won’t wait forever to fill spots/needs.

Sal from the Hammer

• Sean Bonjovi says:

Do the Senators have a team that can beat the Canadiens?

“If ownership cared about Habs fans, or Habs wins the Habs would play home games in the last two weeks of December”
– Sean Bonjovi

• Sal says:

Certain teams have other team’s number for whatever reason, look how the Habs play the Bruins…can’t beat them anymore, but always give them a handfull, well, almost always. You get my point, check the standings.

Sal from the Hammer

• habs001 says:

so true …we laughed at leaf fans when they were proud that they won or tied the season series with us…now many posters do the same with boston and us…

• HabFanSince72 says:

Given that we are 26th in the league pretty much everyone can probably beat us.

• Sal says:

It’s just reality. Do the Habs look like they are going to suddenly become an elite team? Nobody would like that better than I! If as PG says, there isn’t significant movement up the food chain during the month of January, when they play eight home games and three away games, then sell assests, not, for other washed up or, over the hill assets, but prosects and picks. Personally, I would like somebody besides either PG/BG doing it, based on their past record. I certainly don’t control that….LOL!

Sal from the Hammer

• Sean Bonjovi says:

@ Sal, I put this reply in the wrong spot

The Canadiens have lost to every team below us in the standings, and we’ve beaten the sens both games. Those are the facts, but that’s not really what I was talking about. I watch a lot of Sens games and I don’t think they’re all that good. I like a lot of players on their team, but they can’t play defence, and they’ve got some dead weight.
I absolutely do enjoy Senators games more than the Jacques Martin era Habs, but do you really think that team is better than the Canadiens now, or that they have a brighter future?

“If ownership cared about Habs fans, or Habs wins the Habs would play home games in the last two weeks of December”
– Sean Bonjovi

• Sal says:

Sean: They seem to be moving in the right direction.Nobody expected the SENS to even be close to a playoff position never mind in the middleof the playoff pack! Perhaps coaching is a large factor, McClean seems to have rejuvinated their veteran players, something, Cluston failed at miserably. I have a close buddy, that lives in Ottawa, and says the same as you, ie., their success is more of an ilusion than a reality. Still, they are beating teams ahead of them on a regular basis. I would think that if they are as bad as you, and my sceptical buddy says they are, they would have fallen back by now, much like the leafs. In any case, I use them as an example because they did a late season fire sale that has netted them some assessts they wouldn’t otherwise have. I believe the kid, (Can’t spell his name) that scored the winner for the Swedes in the WJHC is such a pick. I don’t pretend to know what current habs can be used as significant trade bait, in the way of picks/prospects, but, if it results in one diamond in the rough, then I say it’s worth the risk.

Sal from the Hammer

• habs001 says:

we seem to match up well with the senators…but so did the leafs with us the last few years..

• Bobcat Bob says:

Bobcat Bob
They have not so far. 6-2 Habs last meeting — personally, with everyone healthy the Senators should be an easy 2 points for Habs

I know I am late to the game. But wow!

Boston whining following the game yesterday. And the infraction against Lucic was rescinded after the game last night, no way, never would have guessed that. I thought leaving the bench to engage in a fight was an automatic suspension?

Marchand has a hearing…all he will get is 2 games – MAX! Should be 5, that was a dirty play.

25. The Dude says:

I’m starting to get the message that some here on this site feel that the complete populous of Quebec should be forced to speak English only. Surprise eh………..

• CC says:

Speak whatever language you want Dude, you have that right as does everyone else!

• Ian Cobb says:

BINGO! CC

• HardHabits says:

Everybody in Quebec has the right to speak whatever language they want to. Working in whatever language they want to is another thing altogether. However, there are numerous jobs in Quebec where French is rarely spoken or used. However being able to speak French opens up opportunities in Quebec for English speakers to work at jobs where speaking French is a necessity, just as speaking English is a necessity to work in almost every job in the rest of Canada.

• ZepFan2 says:

Then you’ve been smoking too much.

How about some would rather see equality for both official languages?

———————————————————————-

• HardHabits says:

That will never happen. English is far more dominant in North America.

• ZepFan2 says:

It’s happening right now as we speak. In Sudbury.

It could and should be done in the bigger and more international city of Montreal.
———————————————————————-

• HardHabits says:

What is happening in Sudbury?

• ZepFan2 says:

@HH

Bilingualism. That’s what’s happening.

———————————————————————-

• LA Loyalist says:

Oh just don’t make a crack like that and walk away.

We just want the best coach available, he can be Quebecois or one of the Chilean minors — just like Ferrari wants the best driver, or Manchester Untied want the best soccer coach (notwithstanding that soccer is about the gayest sport there is).

Hockey is an international sport now, and certain Quebec writers just sound like parochial little small town whiners. It’s embarrassing, actually.

I personally would take Carbonneau back – but not because he’s Quebecois. How that for a conundrum?

• powdered toastmann says:

Liked your reply…except the Carbonneau part…great player, but as a recycled coach (especially with Gauthier still as GM)…no thanks

• Ian Cobb says:

No body gave you that message DUDE, just like any other language in the country. Learn them if you want to, the more languages one speaks, the more doors that open is all.

• deuce6 says:

Yup, that is exactly what we want..Genocide…*rolls eyes*

Dude, gimmie a break…What the REAL fans of the Montreal Canadiens want is a winning team, nothing more…We could care less if the coach spoke in Chinese as long as he is getting results..I get where you and numerous other Franco born people are coming from, but to paint the fans of hockey and crucify someone (Randy Cunneyworth) because they are uni-lingual is ignorant beyond belief..

——————

Yes, I’m a Hab fan..Wanna fight about it?

• HardHabits says:

The Dude is obviously reaching.

Nobody is crucifying anybody. Do you actually know what a crucifixion is?

So tell me. Who is the ignorant one here?

• deuce6 says:

Actually, I could care less of what you or any of these “fans” think..I am a fan of the Montreal Canadiens and that’s it…I could care less what the tongue of the coach speaks as long as he helps this team win, but if someone is gonna come in here and paint all of us as fans that we are trying to suppress their culture because I don’t agree with the whining that the coach isn’t French is ignorant..That is so far from the truth, it isn’t funny…

Having a rally outside the Arena because the team doesn’t have enough French born players/coaches is absurd..The game has evolved and if you want to be competitive in this league, you HAVE to go with the best available..Period..

The guy can speak whatever language he wants to speak..Its a free country, but don’t come in here and start throwing out accusations saying I or anyone else here is trying to say that the “populous of Quebec should be forced to speak English only.” simply because we want the best available for our team..That is ignorant..

——————

Yes, I’m a Hab fan..Wanna fight about it?